[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 300519
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
119 AM EDT Sat Jun 30 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends its axis from the Cabo Verde Islands near
16N24W to 04N25W moving W at 15-20 kt. This wave is noted in
model diagnostics guidance and TPW animation. Showers are limited
near the wave's axis.

A tropical wave extends its axis from 17N47W to 05N49W, moving
westward 15-20 knots. Scattered showers are near the southern end
of the wave's axis south of 10N. The wave shows up well in model
diagnostics guidance and TPW product. Tropical moisture associated
with this wave will reach the waters E of the Windward Islands
tonight, and move across the islands on Sat, increasing the
likelihood of showers and tstms.

A tropical wave is moving across the eastern Caribbean and
extends its axis from La Mona Passage to northwest Venezuela.
Scattered showers are noted from 15N-20N between 63W-71W. A high
amplitude bulge of moisture is associated with this wave based on
the TPW product. This will slightly increase the tropical
moisture across islands enhancing convection through the weekend.
This wave will move across the Caribbean basin through Sat night.

Another tropical wave extends across the far W Caribbean and
Central America into the EPAC region. Its axis is along 88W.
Scattered moderate convection is observed over the Pacific waters
south of 12N.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of
Guinea near 10N15W and continues to 06N33W. The ITCZ begins near
06N33W and continues to 05N46W, then resumes west of a tropical
wave near 06N50W to 06N57W. Aside from the convection related to
the tropical waves, scattered showers are from 03N-08N between
30W-36W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough extends across northern Florida into the NE Gulf
along 84W. Scattered showers and tstms have flared up near the
trough's axis, affecting roughly the waters north of 26N and east
of 86W.

The remainder of the Gulf is under the influence of a weak high
pressure center of 1017 mb located over the central Gulf near
27N90W. This system is producing light to gentle winds and seas
of 2-3 ft over the eastern half of the Gulf, and gentle to
moderate winds and seas of 3-5 ft over the western half of the
Gulf. Moderate to fresh return flow is expected over the west-
central and NW Gulf through the weekend.

The western Atlantic high pressure is forecast to weaken on Sat
and remain stretched across Florida and the eastern Gulf. A
surface trough will emerge off the Yucatan Peninsula each night,
enhancing nocturnal winds in the SW Gulf through early next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A pair of tropical waves are moving across the basin. Please, see
the Tropical Waves section for details. Recent scatterometer data
depicted fresh to strong winds across the south-central Caribbean,
while moderate to fresh trades across the remainder of the basin
S of 12N between 72W-77W. Light to gentle winds are noted over
the NW Caribbean. Winds and seas in the central Caribbean will
gradually diminish through early next week as high pressure N of
area weakens.

Scattered moderate convection is seen over the SW Caribbean,
mainly S of 12N between 80W-84W. Similar convection is over the
eastern Caribbean due to the presence of a tropical wave. Isolated
to scattered showers and tstms are over parts of Hispaniola, the
Windward Passage, Jamaica and the Cayman Islands. An upper-level
low centered over the Windward Passage is helping to induce this
convective activity. The upper-level low will drift westward into
the NW Caribbean over the weekend, and will continue to enhance
convection across the area.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Two tropical waves are moving across the waters between the coast
of West Africa and the Lesser Antilles. Refer to the Tropical Wave
section above for details. A surface trough is over the central
Atlantic and extends from 36N48W to 28N50W. Light winds are on
either side of the trough's axis based on scatterometer data. This
trough is a surface reflection of an upper-level low spinning
near 31N49W.

A 1035 mb surface high located NW of the Azores near 44N40W is in
control of the remainder of the area, extending a ridge SW across
the west-central Atlantic. Moderate to fresh winds are around the
southern periphery of the ridge W of 48W to the Lesser Antilles.
The ridge will slowly weaken through early next week. Generally
benign marine conditions are expected across the region through
this period.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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