[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 290538
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
138 AM EDT Fri Jun 29 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends its axis along 21W from 02N-16N, moving
west at 10-15 kt. This wave is noted in model diagnostics.
Scattered showers are from 06N-11N between 14W-22W.

An Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis from 18N39W to 03N44W,
moving westward 10 to 15 knots. No significant convection is
related to this wave at this time.

A Caribbean tropical wave is entering the eastern portion of the
basin with axis from 19N63W to 04N65W, moving westward 10 to 15
knots. Scattered showers are mainly south of 12N affecting the
northern portion of South America between 58W-68W.

A western Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis from 19N84W to
07N84W, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Scattered moderate
convection is affecting Central America and adjacent waters south
of 13N between 80W-88W.

A tropical wave is moving through southwest Mexico and the EPAC
with axis along 98N. Scattered showers are noted with this wave
between 96W-102W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Africa along 19N
through 18W. The ITCZ begins near 07N22W to 07N41W, then resumes
west of a tropical wave near 10N46W to 06N57W. Aside from the
convection related to the tropical wave along 21W, scattered
showers are noted along the boundaries between 24W-31W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Broad surface anticyclonic flow spans the Gulf of Mexico, anchored
by a 1018 mb high centered near 26N88W. A line of showers and
thunderstorms is moving over the Florida Panhandle and some of
this activity is reaching the adjacent waters north of 29N and
east of 88W.

Little change is expected in this pattern through early next week.
A surface trough will emerge off the Yucatan Peninsula each
night, enhancing nocturnal winds in the SW Gulf of Mexico through
Monday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper-level cyclonic flow covers the basin centered over
Hispaniola at this time. With this, scattered showers are noted
over Hispaniola, eastern Cuba, and Puerto Rico, and adjacent
waters. Scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong winds just
north of Colombia from 11N-14N between 70W-76W. Another area of
strong winds is noted between the northwest Hispaniola's coast
and the southern Bahamas between 71W-74W.

The 84W tropical wave will continue moving across Central America
today. The tropical wave along 65W will reach eastern Puerto Rico
today. Neither of these waves appear to have potential for
tropical cyclone formation at this time. Strong breeze to near
gale-force winds in the central Caribbean Sea will diminish on
Sunday and Monday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Broad surface anticyclonic flow covers the Atlantic Ocean. A
surface ridge is extends across the basin anchored by a 1035 mb
high centered near 43N44W. Two tropical waves are moving across
the basin. Refer to the section above for details.

The broad surface high pressure across the west-central Atlantic
Ocean will weaken gradually on Sunday-Monday. Benign marine
conditions are expected across the region through early next week.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net