[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 260045 CCA
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
757 PM EDT Mon Jun 25 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

corrected for lat/lon of tropical waves

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is over western Africa near 11W from
02N to 20N. Active convection is noted west of the tropical wave
across western Africa into the far eastern north Atlantic waters
to around 20W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 32W from 02N to 18N, moving
west around 20 kt. Isolated moderate convection is observed from
05N to 16N within 210 nm either side of the wave axis.

A tropical wave is over the east Caribbean, with axis near 64W
from 10N to 21N, moving west about 18 kt. Isolated showers and
tstms are noted from 14N to 20N between 60W and 65W.

A tropical wave is moving west through the central Caribbean, with
axis near 76W from 10N to 21N. Isolated showers are noted from 10N
to 15N between 74W and 80W.

Another tropical wave is along 87.5W is moving across the Yucatan
Peninsula and portions of central America. Active convection is
noted over the Yucatan peninsula, Guatemala, and Belize. Numerous
strong convection is also observed across the far southwest
Caribbean between the two tropical waves. This wave will likely
lose identity on Tue as it merges into a broad low pressure over
the East Pacific SSW of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, where conditions
are expected to become favorable for tropical cyclone formation
late this week.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends southwest off the coast of western at
14N17W to 05N26W. The ITCZ continues from 05N26W to 06N32W to the
coast of South America near 04.5N51W. Except as previously
described near the tropical waves, isolated moderate to
occasionally strong convection is observed from 04N to 06N
between 20W and 21W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper-level cyclone is centered over Mexico near 22N101W.
Upper diffluence east of this cyclone is supporting scattered
showers and tstms over the southwest gulf waters, generally
southwest of a line from 24N97W to 19N95W. The upper cyclone is
forecast to continue westward through Tue while continuing to
enhance convection across the western gulf. An east to west
surface ridge extends from the Florida Big Bend to northeast
Texas. Isolated showers and tstms are observed north of 23N east
of 88W and south of the ridge axis.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

See tropical wave section above for details on three waves
progressing west through the Caribbean. Fresh to locally strong
winds are noted across the Caribbean south of 18N east of 80W,
with moderate to locally fresh easterly flow north of 18N. The
trades will diminish across the east Caribbean through Tue
night, but continue across the southwest Caribbean. Nocturnal
winds will pulse to fresh to strong through Tue night in the
Gulf of Honduras.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A quasi-stationary 1026 mb surface high is centered near 31N53W
with a ridge extending westward to across north Florida, and a
ridge extending southeast to near 23N33W. Moderate to fresh trades
are noted across the tropics west of 45W with little change
forecast through mid week. Strong winds are forecast for the next
few days during the late afternoons through early evening hours
along the north coast of Hispaniola.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
AL
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