[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 230529
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
129 AM EDT Sat Jun 23 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near the west coast of Africa.
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection associated to
this wave is noted from 04N to 10N between 15W and 21W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 39W from 03N to 20W. Isolated
moderate convection is noted at the base of this wave from 01N to
03N between 36W and 41W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 56W from 02N to 18N, moving W
at 20 kt. Isolated moderate to strong convection was noted from
05N to 10N between 50W and 60W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 69W from the coast of
Venezuela to eastern Hispaniola, moving W at 10-15 knots. This
wave, in conjunction with an upper level trough, is helping for
active convection over the northeastern Caribbean east of the
wave axis.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 83W extending from the
eastern north Pacific across western Panama to western Cuba. The
wave is helping for enhanced convection over the NW Caribbean west
of 78W, and the western half of Cuba.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends off western Africa near 16.5N16W to
15.5N18.5W to 06N26W. The ITCZ continues from 06N26W to 03.5N41W
to the coast of NE Brazil near 04N51W. Outside of the convection
associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection
is noted from 04N to 09N between 42W and 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak ridge dominates the Gulf waters, producing gentle to
moderate winds with seas of 3-5 ft over the western Gulf, and
seas of 3 ft or less across the eastern Gulf. Weak ridging will
persist from the southeast Gulf to the coast of Texas through
early next week. SE return flow will increase slightly over the
western Gulf between the ridge and weak low pressure over northern
Mexico starting tonight.

An upper level low near 20N95.5W is helping produce active
convection over the Yucatan peninsula and southern Mexico as well
as the forecast waters S of 22N west of the Yucatan peninsula to
the Bay of Campeche.

A surface trough will develop in the Yucatan Peninsula each
afternoon, then move westward across the SW Gulf during the
overnight hours before dissipating over the SW Gulf in the morning
hours. The trough will be accompanied by fresh to occasionally
strong east to southeast winds.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is moving across the western Caribbean. Another
tropical wave is over the central Caribbean. Please, see Tropical
Waves section for more details. Expect increasing showers and
isolated thunderstorms in association with the passage of these
tropical waves.

Trade winds over the south central Caribbean will strengthen and
expand in areal coverage across the basin through early next week
as high pressure builds across the central Atlantic.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

High pressure of 1029 mb centered near 32N43W extends a ridge
westward across the forecast area. Fresh trades are noted along
the southern periphery of the ridge. This high pressure will
slowly shift westward through tonight, then remain nearly
stationary near 30N55W through Tue night. The tightening pressure
gradient over the central Atlantic will support fresh to strong
trade winds and seas of 8-9 ft E of the Lesser Antilles to about
45W by early this morning. These marine conditions will persist
on Sun with seas building up to 10 ft. Fresh to strong winds are
also expected off Hispaniola at night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
AL
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