[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 221153
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
753 AM EDT Fri Jun 22 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1115 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 32W from 03N to 18N, moving W
at 15 kt. Abundant cloudiness surrounds the wave's axis but
convection is limited.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 50W from 02N to 18N, moving W
at about 15 knots. Scattered moderate convection is noted from
05N to 09N between 45W and 53W. This wave will pass west of 55W late
today, move across the eastern Caribbean Sat, the central Caribbean
Sun, and through the western Caribbean early next week.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 64W from 06N to 20N, moving W
at about 10 knots. Scattered moderate convection associated to
this wave is noted from 13N to 17N between 60W and 64W, and it is
still affecting the Lesser Antilles. This wave will reach the
central Caribbean later today, then across the western Caribbean
into Central America through Sun. Moisture associated with this
wave will increase the likelihood of showers and isolated tstms
over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands today, then across
Dominican Republic tonight into Sat.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 77W from 09N to 21N. Convection
is limited. This wave will continue through western Caribbean through
late today.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of western Africa near
16N16W to 5N27W. The ITCZ continues from 5N27W to 04N50W.
Outside of the convection associated with the tropical waves,
isolated moderate convection is from 02N to 08N between 32W and
58W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1011 mb low pressure centered over NE Mexico near 25N100W
continues to produce a large area of showers NE Mexico. The low
will continue to weaken today, with associated convection
decreasing.

Weak ridging will persist from the southeast Gulf to Texas
through early next week. SE return flow will increase slightly
over the western Gulf between the ridge and weak low pressure over
northern Mexico.

A surface trough will develop in the Yucatan Peninsula each
afternoon, then move westward across the SW Gulf during the
overnight hours, accompanied by fresh to occasionally strong east
to southeast winds.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is moving across the western Caribbean. Another
tropical wave is over the eastern Caribbean affecting the Lesser
Antilles. Please, see Tropical Waves section for details. Expect
increasing showers and isolated thunderstorms in association with
the passage of these tropical waves.

High pressure N of area is forecast to strengthen over the next
couple of days while moving westward. As a result, the trade
winds over the south-central Caribbean will strengthen and expand
in areal coverage across the basin through early next week. Winds
could reach near gale force along the coast of Colombia by Sun
night. Fresh to strong winds will affect the Gulf of Honduras
each night beginning tonight through Mon night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper-level trough extends from a cyclonic circulation centered
near 26N66W to eastern Cuba. Scattered showers and tstms are
noted on the SE semicircle of the low affecting mainly the waters
from 21N to 26N between 63W and 71W.

High pressure of 1030 mb centered near 34N37W extends a ridge
westward across the forecast area. Fresh trades are noted along
the southern periphery of the ridge, but mainly between 40W-70W.
This high pressure will slowly shift westward through Sat night,
then remain nearly stationary near 30N55W through Tue. The
tightening pressure gradient that results over the central
Atlantic will support fresh to strong trade winds and seas of 8-10
ft E of the Lesser Antilles to about 45W by early Sat morning.
These marine conditions will persist on Sun.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
GR
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