[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 210523
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
123 AM EDT Thu Jun 21 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 20W from 11N. Broken to
overcast multilayered clouds and isolated moderate rainshowers
cover the area that is from 13N southward between Africa and 26W.

A second Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 32W from 11N
southward, based on satellite imagery, moving W 20 knots. Widely
scattered moderate rainshowers are in the ITCZ.

A third Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 40W/41W from 11N
southward, moving W 15 knots. Widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong rainshowers are in the ITCZ.

A fourth Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 57W/58W from 18N
southward, moving W 10 knots. Isolated moderate to locally strong
rainshowers cover the area that is from 14N southward between 50W
and 61W. The wave will move across the eastern Caribbean from
this afternoon through Friday night.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 71W/72W from the Dominican
Republic southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Isolated moderate to
locally strong rainshowers are in the NW corner of Venezuela and
parts of the Guajira Peninsula of Colombia.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea
near 10N14W, to 07N19W. The ITCZ is along 07N22W 06N40W 04N50W.
Precipitation: Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
rainshowers are from 03N to 08N between 23W and 43W. isolated
moderate rainshowers are from 10N southward between 43W and 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Deep South of Texas and
parts of NE Mexico. Scattered to numerous strong rainshowers are
in the upper Texas Gulf coast, and along the southern and SE coast
of Texas. Scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are
in Mexico from 25N to 26N between 98W and 101W.

A comparatively weak surface pressure pattern exists in the Gulf
of Mexico. A broad and weak surface ridge passes through central
Florida toward the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico.

Surface low pressure in southern Texas will support gusty winds,
numerous rainshowers and scattered thunderstorms near the coast
in the NW Gulf of Mexico overnight. The winds and seas in the NW
Gulf of Mexico will diminish on Thursday as the low pressure
center weakens. A surface trough will develop in the Yucatan
Peninsula each afternoon, then move westward across the SW Gulf
during the overnight hours, accompanied by fresh east to
southeast winds.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough extends from a 27N65W Atlantic Ocean
cyclonic circulation center, across the SE Bahamas and eastern
sections of Cuba, to a NW Caribbean Sea cyclonic circulation
center that is 20N84W. The trough continues from 20N84W to the
part of southern Mexico that is between the Isthmus of Tehuantepec
and northern Guatemala. Earlier areas of scattered to numerous
strong rainshowers were covering much of Central America.
Convective debris clouds from some weakening and already-
dissipated precipitation, and remaining widely scattered moderate
to isolated strong rainshowers cover Central America from 09N to
18N between 83W and 92W in SE Mexico. Isolated moderate to locally
strong rainshowers are from 11N to 16N between 74W and 79W.

The monsoon trough is along 10N between 74W in Colombia and beyond
NW Costa Rica. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are
near the border of Colombia and Panama.

The Hispaniola tropical wave will move into the western Caribbean
Sea on Thursday. The 57W/58W tropical wave will reach the Lesser
Antilles on Thursday morning. Fresh to strong winds are expected
in the Gulf of Honduras from Friday night through Sunday night.
Trade winds across the south central Caribbean Sea will strengthen
on Thursday, and then expand in coverage across the basin during
the upcoming weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough extends from an Atlantic Ocean 35N34W
cyclonic circulation center, through 32N50W, to a second Atlantic
Ocean cyclonic circulation center that is near 27N65W, across the
SE Bahamas and eastern sections of Cuba, to a NW Caribbean Sea
cyclonic circulation center that is near 20N84W. The trough
continues from 20N84W, to the part of southern Mexico that is
between the Isthmus of Tehuantepec and northern Guatemala. Earlier
areas of scattered to numerous strong rainshowers were covering
much of Central America six to 8 hours ago. Convective debris
clouds from some weakening and already-dissipated precipitation,
and remaining widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
rainshowers cover Central America from 09N to 18N between 83W and
92W in SE Mexico. Precipitation: warming cloud top temperatures
and weakening precipitation from 19N to 21N between 63W and 67W to
the north of Puerto Rico. Isolated moderate to locally strong
rainshowers are from 23N to 30N between 50W and 76W.

Surface high pressure in the central Atlantic Ocean will build
westward across the region through Sunday night. Fresh to strong
E to SE winds will develop in the waters S of 23N on Saturday.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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