[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 190003
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 PM EDT Mon Jun 18 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave axis extends from 14N19W to 05N21W, moving W at
15 kt. The wave is in a low shear environment. However, the GOES-
16 Dust RGB and Split window imagery show the wave is being
affected by dry air and dust, especially in the northern wave
environment. No deep convection is associated with the wave.

A tropical wave axis in the central Atlc extends from 12N31W to
03N32W, moving W at 20 kt. Similar to the wave in the E Atlc,
this wave is in a low shear environment. However, is being
affected by dry air and dust, especially in the northern wave
environment. No deep convection is associated with the wave.

A tropical wave axis in the central Atlc extends from 13N48W to
06N51W, moving W at 15 kt. GOES-16 RGB imagery show dry air and
dust intrusion in the wave environment, which along with strong
wind shear inhibits deep convection at this time.

A tropical wave axis passing the Windward Islands extends from
14N53W to 05N56W, moving W at 15-20 kt. This wave is within a
very moist environment and upper level diffluent flow, which is
supporting scattered moderate convection from 07N to 16N between
57W and 63W.

A tropical wave axis in the central Caribbean extends from
21N76W to 09N77W, moving W at 15 kt. The wave is in a strong
wind shear environment and GOES-16 middle and lower level water
vapor imagery show very dry air in the region. These two factors
are hindering the development of deep convection at the time.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 12N17W
to 08N24W. The ITCZ continues from 08N24W to 05N46W. In addition
to the convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered
showers are from 01N to 07N between 20W and 29W and from 05N to
11N between 50W and 56W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Scattered to numerous heavy showers and thunderstorms are over
the NW Gulf of Mexico associated with a middle to upper level low
interacting with a surface trough located along the Texas coast.
Development of this system is not anticipated. However, heavy
rainfall and flash flooding across portions of southern and
southeastern Texas are likely to continue during the next few
days. The pressure gradient between this area of low pressure and
a ridge anchored in the SE CONUS extending into the NE Gulf
support fresh to strong SE to S winds N of 22N between 91W and
95W. The ridge is forecast to weaken by Tue evening and the winds
will diminish to less than 20 kt. Light to fresh return flow will
dominate across the basin thereafter through Wed night, with the
strongest winds being in the western half of the basin.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Strong trades across the S central Caribbean will gradually
decrease in areal coverage through Tue morning as high pressure
in the SW N Atlc shift east. Fresh to strong winds will pulse at
night in the Gulf of Honduras through early Wed morning.
Otherwise, a tropical wave moves across the central Caribbean
between Jamaica and Haiti, however no convection is associated
with it. See the tropical waves section for further information
on this wave. A new tropical wave currently within 120 nm SE of
the Windward Islands is forecast to enter the E Caribbean
tonight along with showers. The wave is forecast to move S of
Puerto Rico Tue morning and into the central Caribbean on Wed.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Weak surface ridging extends from the NW Atlc SSW to just N of
the Bahamas into the SE CONUS and support light to gentle winds
along with fair weather. Lingering moisture associated with the
passage of a cold front support isolated showers across the
northern and central Bahamas as well as the Florida Straits and
the SE Florida seaboard. To the east, a middle to upper level
trough continue to support a frontal system analyzed as a
stationary front from a 1018 mb low near 29N57W SW to 26N73W.
Satellite enhanced imagery along with lighting density data show
scattered showers and tstms within 135 nm ahead of the front.
Latest scatterometer data show fresh winds nearby the low
center. Otherwise, the remainder Atlc continue under the
influence of the Azores subtropical ridge being anchored by a
1030 mb high NE of the Azores Islands. The front is forecast to
weaken and dissipate by Tue night. Surface ridging will dominate
thereafter.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$ Mundell
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