[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 181206
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
806 AM EDT Mon Jun 18 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1145 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the E Atlc with axis extending from 02N28W
to 12N27W, moving W at 15 kt. The wave is in a low or favorable
deep layer wind shear envioronment. However, the GOES-16 Dust RGB
and Split window imagery show the wave is being affected by dry
air and dust, especially in the northern half of the wave
environment. No deep convection is associated with the wave.

A tropical wave is over the central Atlc with axis extending from
04N47W to 13N44W, moving W at 10 kt. Similar to the wave in the E
Atlc, this wave is being affected by the presence of dry air and
dust in its environment along with strong deep layer wind shear.
Therefore, no deep convection is associated with this wave at this
time.

A tropical wave is within 225 nm SE of the Windward Islands with
axis extending from 06N58W to 14N56W, moving W at 10 kt. This wave
is within a very moist environment and under middle to upper level
diffluent flow, which is supporting scattered moderate convection
from 10N to 14N between 55W and 60W.

A tropical wave moving westward over the central Caribbean has an
axis extending from the Guajira Peninsula in NE Colombia near
12N73W to the S coast of the Dominican Republic near 18N71W,
moving W around 15 kt. African dust surrounds the wave. As a
result, only shallow moisture and virtually no convection is
associated with this wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 12.5N17W
to 08N24W. The ITCZ continues from 08N24W to 04N34W. In addition
to the convection mentioned in the Tropical Waves section,
Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is evident from
05N to 11N between 16W and 22W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper-level trough extends across the western Gulf from 28N89W
to a low centered near 21N96W. Fresh to locally near gale force
winds are occurring to the NE of the low primarily over the
Gulf waters N of 22N between 88W and 94W due to a tight pressure
gradient. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection
covers the NW half of the Gulf where heavy rains and gusty winds
will persist and extend to the Texas coastal plain and SW
Louisiana coast. Very heavy rainfall continues over the Yucatan
Peninsula with localized flooding possible. Weak 1021 mb high
pressure resides over the far NE Gulf near 30N84W.

The upper-level trough will gradually move WNW through Mon,
accompanied by numerous showers and thunderstorms that could
produce rough seas. The upper-level trough is inducing surface
troughing along the Texas coastal plain. The tight pressure
gradient will continue to support fresh to strong SE winds over
the west-central Gulf waters. These winds will spread westward
through Tue while gradually diminishing as the trough shifts
farther inland over Texas.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Strong trades across the S central Caribbean from 11N to 14N
between 73W and 79W will gradually decrease in areal coverage
through mid week. Similar pulsing winds will continue in the
vicinity of the Gulf of Honduras.

A tropical wave will reach the waters E of the Lesser Antilles
later tonight, then enter the eastern Caribbean Tue through Wed
night. This system is expected to be accompanied by scattered
showers and thunderstorms. As the wave passes across the Lesser
Antilles into the eastern Caribbean, it will bring gusty winds and
a modest increase in showers and thunderstorms to the Leeward
Islands, the UK/US Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by mid week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends SW from 32N56W to 26N70W to 21N80W with the
western portion in the process of dissipating. Cloudiness,
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are present along
and up to 180 nm SE of the front to the E of 70W. High pressure
measuring 1032 mb centered over the Azores near 39N26W ridges SW
to the N of Puerto Rico near 22N68W.

The cold front will stall over and E of the northern Bahamas
during the next couple of days while weakening. The high pressure
ridge over the Azores will continue to ridge SW across the
western Atlantic.


For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Rivera/Ramos
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