[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 160540
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
140 AM EDT Sat Jun 16 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the E Atlantic, with axis extending from
13N30W to 04N32W, moving W at 10 kt. The wave shows up well as a
moisture surge in TPW imagery. The GOES-16 Geocolor RGB imagery
shows the presence of the Saharan dust and dry air north of the
wave. Scattered moderate convection is noted where the wave meets
the ITCZ along 06N.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic, with axis extending
from 14N46W to 04N47W, moving W at 10 kt. The wave is well
depicted in the TPW product. Shallow moisture and isolated showers
are observed near the wave's axis.

A tropical wave is moving westward across the eastern Caribbean.
Its axis extends along 65W. African dust also surrounds the wave.
As a result, shallow moisture with embedded showers is associated
with the wave. Moisture related to this system will reach Puerto
Rico tonight, and Hispaniola by early on Sun.

A tropical wave is over the W Caribbean, with axis along 84W from
11N-18N, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered showers and tstms prevail
over the SW Caribbean including Central America mainly south of
18N and west of 81W. The wave will continue moving westward
through Central America through Saturday. The GFS model indicates
plenty of moisture over Central America this upcoming weekend.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 11N16W
to 07N22W. The ITCZ continues from 07N22W to 06N29W, then resumes
west of a tropical wave from 07N34W to 05N45W. Besides the
convection mentioned in the Tropical Waves section, scattered
moderate convection is noted within about 75 nm on either side of
the monsoon trough east of 22W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough is analyzed over the SW Gulf from 23N95W to
20N94W with scattered showers. Another trough extends over the
Yucatan Peninsula from 20N89W to 19N92W. Scattered moderate
convection prevails with this trough. An upper-level low centered
over the western Gulf is helping to induce this convective
activity affecting the eastern Gulf, and parts of the Yucatan
Peninsula and the Yucatan Channel. Environmental conditions are not
expected to be favorable for significant development. However,
heavy rains and gusty winds are likely to continue across the
Yucatan Peninsula and the central Gulf of Mexico through Saturday.
This activity is also likely to reach portions of the Texas and
southwestern Louisiana coasts by Sunday. A ridge dominates the
remainder of the basin.

The surface trough across the Bay of Campeche will shift WNW
moving over inland Mexico tonight. The second trough will continue
to enhance convection across the southwest Gulf. A tightening
pressure gradient east of this second trough will induce fresh SE
winds in west-central Gulf waters tonight, becoming strong to
near gale in the central Gulf this weekend, then spreading W
through early next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea and the Yucatan Peninsula supported at
upper-levels by a diffluent flow. Scattered showers and tstms are
also seen over the west Caribbean south of 18N and west of 81W.
Two tropical waves are moving westward across the basin. Please,
see the Tropical Wave section above for details.

Recent scatterometer data provided observations of fresh winds
across the central Caribbean, with seas of 10-11 ft. The aerial
extent of these winds, roughly between 73W and 81W, will slightly
diminish this weekend. However, fresh to strong winds will
prevail across the Gulf of Honduras and the NW Caribbean over the
next couple of days.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front prevails north of the area enhancing scattered
moderate convection north of 30N and west of 70W. Two tropical
waves are moving westward across the basin. Please, see the
Tropical Wave section above for details. The remainder of the
basin is under the influence of a surface ridge, anchored by a
1031 mb high pressure located SW of the Azores near 37N30W.

A cold front will enter the northern portion of the basin this
weekend enhancing convection through early next week. The surface
ridge located S of this boundary will sink southward through this
period. A new high pressure is forecast to build from N of the
area by Tue.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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