[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 121735
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
135 PM EDT Tue Jun 12 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1730 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 33W from 01N-11N, moving west at 10-15
kt. This wave shows up as a low amplitude moisture surge on the
TPW product. Currently, showers are limited near the wave's axis.
African dust surrounds the wave limiting convection.

A tropical wave extends its axis from 15N50W to 06N51W, moving
west at 10-15 kt. This wave shows up as a low amplitude moisture
surge on the TPW product. Scattered moderate convection is between
46W-58W. An upper-level trough west of 50W is enhancing
convective activity associated with this wave.

Another tropical wave axis is from 18N62W to 06N62W, moving west
at 10-15 kt. The wave coincides with a surge of moistened air, as
noted in TPW imagery. Scattered showers are noted along the
wave's axis south of 10N.

A tropical wave moving across the Windward Passage and the central
Caribbean, with axis extending from 20N74W to 10N76W, moving west
at 10-15 kt. An area of moderate convection is noted west of the
wave's axis along 80W, enhanced by a diffluent flow aloft.
Widespread cloudiness prevails ahead of the wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 14N16W
to 08N20W. The ITCZ continues from 08N20W to 05N30W, then resumes
west of the tropical wave from 05N35W to 07N49W. Scattered
moderate convection is related to the tropical wave along 50W-51W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A mid to upper-level trough extends across the eastern Gulf and
the NW Caribbean into Honduras with axis along 85W. It continues
to enhance the development of scattered showers and thunderstorms
across the eastern Gulf and the Yucatan Channel. The remainder of
the Gulf is under the influence of surface ridge, anchored by a
1019 mb high centered over the Florida peninsula near 27N81W.

Little change is expected the few days. The upper-level trough
will meander over the region and enhance deep convection in the
eastern gulf waters. A surface trough will develop along the
Yucatan Peninsula each evening, then drift westward across the
southwest Gulf at night, accompanied by fresh east to southeast
winds, then dissipate by late morning.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A mid to upper-level trough extends across the NW Caribbean with
axis along 85W. Diffluent flow east of this trough is producing
numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms between 73W-84W. A
surface trough within this convection extending along 80W. A
tight pressure gradient will support strong trades across the
south-central Caribbean this week, with high winds and seas
spreading northward into the central Caribbean by Wed, and into
the west Caribbean later this week. Little change to the upper-
level trough is expected through the week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Abundant deep layer moisture continues to prevail in the western
Atlantic and Bahamas, E of a deep upper-level trough with axis
along 85W. Scattered moderate convection is observed west of 75W.
A surface ridge dominates the remainder of the Atlantic, anchored
by a 1027 mb high centered near 31N40W. Moderate to locally fresh
winds are noted along the southern periphery of the ridge from
scatterometer data.

The surface ridge will meander between 27N-29N through the week.
Fresh to strong easterly winds are possible along the northern
coast of Hispaniola during late afternoons and early evenings.
Gentle to moderate anticyclonic southerly flow will prevail north
of the ridge axis.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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