[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 120601
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT Tue Jun 12 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

Currently, three tropical waves are observed between the coast of
Africa and the Lesser Antilles.

A tropical wave is along 30W from 02N-12N moving west at 15 kt.
This wave shows up as a low amplitude moisture surge on the TPW
product. Currently, showers are limited near the wave's axis.
African dust surrounds the wave limiting convection.

A tropical wave extends its axis from 15N47W to 06N49W, moving
west at 15 kt. This wave shows up as a low amplitude moisture
surge on the TPW product. Scattered showers are south of 12N
within 120 nm E of the wave axis. An upper level trough west
of 50W is enhancing convective activity associated with wave.

Another tropical wave axis is from 16N57W to 06N58W, moving west
at 10-15 kt. The wave coincides with a surge of moistened air,
as noted in TPW imagery. Isolated showers are along the ITCZ
where it intersects the wave.

A tropical wave moving south of Hispaniola at 10-15 kt extends
its axis from 19N72W to 11N74W. Scattered showers are noted
along and west of the axis. Widespread cloudiness associated
with upper level divergence ahead of the wave is evident from
satellite imagery.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 12N15W
to 07N20W. The ITCZ continues from 07n20w to 05n29W, west of the
tropical wave along 30W from 04N30W to 06N41W to 07N46W to the
coast of South America near 06N55W. Scattered moderate showers
are from 05N to 08N between 50W and 56W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A deep mid to upper-level trough extends across the eastern Gulf
and the NW Caribbean into Honduras. It continues to enhance the
development of scattered showers and thunderstorms across the SE
Gulf and the Yucatan Channel. The remainder of the Gulf is under
the influence of the Atlantic ridge that extends westward across
Florida into the Gulf.

Little change is expected the few days. The upper trough will
meander over the region and enhance deep convection in the
eastern gulf waters. A surface trough will develop along the
Yucatan Peninsula each evening, then drift westward across the
southwest Gulf at night, accompanied by fresh east to southeast
winds, then dissipate by late morning.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A deep mid to upper-level trough extends across the NW Caribbean
with an axis along 85W. Diffluent flow east of this trough is
producing numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms between
73W-84W. A surface trough within this convection extends from S
of 20N along 83W. A tight pressure gradient will support strong
trades across the south-central Caribbean this week, with high
winds and seas spreading northward into the central Caribbean by
Wed, and into the west Caribbean later this week. Little change
to the upper trough this week will enhance convection across the
area through Fri.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Abundant deep layer moisture continues to prevail in the western
Atlantic and Bahamas, E of a deep upper-level trough along 82W.
Numerous showers and widely scattered thunderstorms continue E
of southern Florida. A surface ridge dominates the remainder of
the Atlantic, anchored by a 1027 mb high centered near 30N43W.
Moderate to locally fresh winds are noted along the southern
periphery of the ridge from scatterometer data.

The surface ridge will meander between 27N and 29N through early
Saturday. Fresh to strong easterly winds are possible along the
northern coast of Hispaniola during late afternoons and early
evenings. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic southerly flow will
prevail north of the ridge axis.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

Mundell
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