[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 110005
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 PM EDT Sun Jun 10 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 18W/19W from 11N
southward. The Hovmoller Diagram clearly indicates the westward
propagation of the wave, and model diagnostics guidance also
suggests the presence of this system. This wave shows up well
as a low amplitude moisture surge on the TPW product.
Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered convective debris
clouds, from earlier and already-dissipated precipitation, cover
the area from 03N to 10N between 16W and 26W. it is possible that
isolated moderate rainshowers may remain in the area of
cloudiness.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 32W from 12N southward
moving westward 15 to 20 knots. This wave shows up well as a low
amplitude moisture surge on the TPW product. Precipitation:
isolated moderate rainshowers are in the ITCZ from 04N to 08N
between 29W and 36W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 44W/45W based on the TPW
animation. The wave coincides with a good surge of moistened air.
Precipitation: isolated moderate rainshowers are from 02N to 10N
between 37W and 47W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 68W/69W, starting to move
across Hispaniola, moving westward 15 knots. Precipitation:
isolated moderate rainshowers are from 16N to 22N between 63W and
71W.

A tropical wave is along 88W/89W, moving across the Yucatan
Peninsula and northern Central America. The wave is interacting
with an upper level trough, with continued development of
rainshowers in parts of the western Caribbean Sea, northern
Central America, and the Yucatan Peninsula.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through Sierra Leone near 08N12W, to
07N20W, 05N25W, and 05N30W. The ITCZ continues from 05N33W to
06N43W, and then along 05N/06N between 46W and 60W. Precipitation:
isolated moderate rainshowers are elsewhere from 11N southward
from 60W eastward.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A mid to upper level trough extending across the eastern Gulf and
the far NW Caribbean into northern Central America continues to
enhance the development of scattered showers and thunderstorms
across the eastern Gulf, and over parts of Florida. Similar
convective activity is also noted along the northern Gulf waters
from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle. The remainder of the Gulf
is under the influence of the Atlantic ridge that extends westward
across Florida into the Gulf, with a 1019 mb high pressure centered
near 28N87W.

Middle leve to upper level cyclonic wind flow will remain in the
Gulf of Mexico through the middle of the week and continue to
enhance convection across the eastern Gulf waters. The Atlantic
Ocean subtropical ridge will continue to extend across the
eastern Gulf waters. The pressure gradient between the ridge and
generally lower pressure over the far western gulf will support
moderate to fresh SE winds mainly west of 90W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Recent scatterometer data provide observations of fresh to strong
winds across the central Caribbean, and the eastern Caribbean S of
15N. The most recent altimeter data indicated sea heights of near
10 ft in association with these winds. Moderate to locally fresh
trades prevail across the remainder of the eastern Caribbean, with
gentle to moderate NE-E winds across the NW part of the basin.
The pressure gradient between high pressure N of area and the
Colombian/Panamanian low will continue to support fresh to strong
winds across the central Caribbean, and the eastern Caribbean S of
15N, but mainly W of 64W. These conditions will persist through
early Tue, then expand north and across the NW Caribbean waters
Tue night through Thu.

The 68W/69W tropical wave will continue to move westward during
the next few days, and reach the Gulf of Honduras early on
Wednesday, where it will enhance the trades to fresh to strong
through Thursday. The Atlantic Ocean subtropical ridge will
continue to tighten the pressure gradient in the central
Caribbean, thus supporting the continuation of fresh to strong
trades in that region. A new tropical wave will enter the basin
early on Wednesday. It will enhance the trades to fresh to strong
in the E Caribbean Sea from Tuesday night through Thursday
morning.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Abundant moisture continues to prevail across the west Atlantic
and the Bahamas, on the eastern side of the Gulf of Mexico-NW
Caribbean mid to upper-level trough. Lightning data and Doppler
Radar indicate the presence of tstms over S Florida and the NW
Bahamas. A ridge dominates the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean
with a 1026 mb high pressure located near 35N28W. Moderate to
locally fresh winds are noted along the southern periphery of the
ridge per scatterometer data.

The Atlantic subtropical ridge will continue to extend westward
across the region supporting southerly light to moderate winds in
the windward side of the Bahamas. Strong high pressure associated
with the ridge will lead to enhanced trades along the northern
coast of Hispaniola every night during the forecast period.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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