[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101201
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
801 AM EDT Sun Jun 10 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1115 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

Currently, two tropical waves are observed between the coast of
Africa and the Lesser Antilles. Two tropical waves are moving
across the Caribbean Sea.

A tropical wave is along 29W/30W from 4N-14N moving westward 15
to 20 kt. This wave shows up well as a low amplitude moisture
surge on the TPW product. Currently, scattered showers are near
the southern end of the wave's axis. African dust surrounds the
wave.

A second tropical wave extends its axis along 40W south of 15N,
moving westward 10 to 15 kt. Isolated to scattered moderate
convection is seen where the waves axis meets the ITCZ. Saharan
dust also surrounds the wave.

A tropical wave is moving across the eastern Caribbean. Its axis
is along 65W/66W south of 18N, moving westward 15 to 20 kt. A
patch of low level moisture with embedded showers is associated
with the wave, affecting Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. The
wave will reach Hispaniola late today.

A tropical wave is along 88W moving west at 10 kt. The wave is
interacting with an upper-level trough resulting in continued
thunderstorm development across parts of the western Caribbean and
northern Central America. Scattered showers and tstms are now
observed near the northern end of the wave's axis. affecting the
east part of the Yucatan Peninsula.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through Guinea near 10N14W to 07N26W.
The ITCZ continues from 07N26W to 06N40W to the coast of Guyana
near 07N59W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
from 04N-09N between 14N-19N. Scattered moderate convection is
within about 120 nm N of the ITCZ axis between 43W and 46W, and
within 90 nm N of the ITCZ axis between W of 56W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A mid to upper level low located over the NE Gulf continues to
enhance the development of scattered showers and thunderstorms
across the eastern Gulf, and over parts of Florida. The remainder
of the Gulf is under the influence of the Atlantic ridge that
extends westward across Florida into the Gulf. Scattered showers
and tstms persist just of the coast of Mexico, roughly between
Tuxpan and Veracruz, where a diffluent pattern aloft prevails.

The mid to upper low will meander over the Gulf of Mexico through
the middle of the week and continue to enhance convection across
the eastern Gulf waters. A surface trough will develop along the
Yucatan Peninsula late each afternoon, drift westward across the
southwest Gulf during the overnight hours accompanied by a fresh
east to southeast wind shift and dissipate along 96W during the
late mornings. An east to west ridge will meander across the
northern Gulf waters through the period accompanied by moderate to
locally fresh return flow. The pressure gradient will tighten
during the middle of the week with mostly fresh southeast flow
forecast across the entire southwest gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave moving west through the eastern Caribbean will
continue through the central Caribbean early this week. A tight
pressure gradient will support strong trades across the
south-central and southwest Caribbean through Mon, with these
conditions shifting north across the Caribbean waters from 12N
to 19N by the middle of the week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An east to west ridge will meander between 27N and  29N through
Thu. Fresh to locally strong easterly winds are  forecast along
the northern coast of Hispaniola during the late  afternoons and
evenings, with moderate easterly low forecast  elsewhere south
of the ridge. Gentle to moderate southerly flow is expected
north of the ridge.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
GR
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