[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091201
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
801 AM EDT Sat Jun 9 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1115 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 20W from 13N southward
moving westward 10 to 15 kt. Convection is limited near the wave
axis.

A second Atlantic Ocean tropical wave extends its axis along
34W south of 15N, moving westward 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers
are noted where the wave meets the ITCZ.

A third Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 57W/58W, south of
15N, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Scattered moderate convection
is near the southern end of the wave's axis.

A Caribbean Sea/Central America tropical wave is moving through
Honduras and Nicaragua, from 18N southward along 85W, moving
westward 10 knots. The wave is interacting with an upper level
trough, extending from the eastern Gulf of Mexico to the Yucatan
Peninsula. This will help to induce precipitation across Central
America and the western Caribbean Sea during the weekend.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through Senegal near 14N17W, to 10N29W.
The ITCZ is along 06N37W 05N48W. Outside of the convection
associated with the waves, no deep convection is noted.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A mid to upper low will meander over the Gulf of Mexico through
the middle of next week and enhance convection over the eastern
Gulf waters. A surface trough will develop along the Yucatan
Peninsula late each afternoon, drift westward across the southwest
Gulf during the overnight hours, then dissipate along 96W during
the late mornings. A strong wind shift is forecast along the
trough this evening, with fresh northeast to east to southeast
wind shift expected to resume beginning on Sun evening. An east to
west ridge will meander across the northern Gulf waters through
the period accompanied by a moderate southeast return flow, except
increasing to fresh southeast breeze late Sun through Mon evening.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The tropical wave with axis along 85W will pass west through the
Gulf of Honduras through this evening and interact with an upper
trough resulting in continued thunderstorm development across the
western Caribbean. A second tropical wave with axis along 57W/58W
will pass west through the tropical waters east of the Windwards
today, and enter the southeast Caribbean tonight. A tight pressure
gradient is supporting near gale force winds along the north
coast of Colombia. The pressure gradient will relax later today
supporting strong trades across the south-central and southwest
Caribbean through Sun, with fresh to locally strong trades
forecast from 12N to 19N beginning early next week.

Multi-layer clouds cover most of the Caribbean W of 78W, including
Cuba. Patches of low level moisture embedded in the trade winds
flow are noted elsewhere.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Abundant moisture continues to prevail across the west Atlantic,
on the eastern side of the Gulf of Mexico-Yucatan Peninsula mid to
upper level trough. A band of multi-layer clouds extends from
central Cuba across the NW and central Bahamas with embedded
tstms.

An east to west ridge will meander between 27N and 29N through
Wed. Fresh to locally strong nocturnal easterly winds are forecast
along the northern coast of Hispaniola, with moderate easterly
forecast elsewhere south of the ridge. Gentle to moderate
southerly flow is expected north of the ridge.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
GR
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net