[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 090005
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 PM EDT Fri Jun 8 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 15W/16W from 13N
southward. The Hovmoller Diagram indicates the westward
propagation of the wave, and model diagnostics guidance also
suggests the presence of this system.

A second Atlantic Ocean tropical wave extends its axis along
33W/34W south of 15N, moving westward 15 to 20 knots.

A third Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 53W/54W, south of
15N, moving westward 10 to 15 knots.

A Caribbean Sea/Central America tropical wave is moving through
Honduras and Nicaragua, from 18N southward along 83W/84W, moving
westward 10 knots. Moisture associated with the wave will spread
across northern parts of Central America during the rest of today
and Saturday. An upper level trough, extending from the eastern
Gulf of Mexico to the Yucatan Peninsula, also will help to induce
precipitation across Central America and the western Caribbean Sea
during the weekend.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through Guinea near 10N14W, to 06N20W.
The ITCZ continues from 06N20W to 07N33W, 06N48W, and 05N53W at
the coast of French Guiana.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is in the NE corner of
the area. A 1018 mb low pressure center is near 29N87W, under the
upper level feature. This system is helping to induce
precipitation over Florida and adjacent coastal waters.

The current upper level cyclonic circulation center will meander
in the NE corner of the Gulf of Mexico for a few more days,
enhancing convective precipitation in the eastern Gulf. A surface
trough will develop along the Yucatan Peninsula late each
afternoon, drift westward across the southwest Gulf during the
overnight hours, accompanied by a fresh to locally strong wind
shift, with the trough dissipating along 95W during the late
mornings. An east-to-west oriented ridge will meander across the
northern Gulf waters through the period with moderate southeast
return flow increasing to fresh breeze late Sunday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Recent scatterometer data provide observations of fresh to strong
trade winds from 11N-17N between 70W-82W. Moderate to locally
fresh trades prevail across the remainder of the eastern Caribbean
with gentle to moderate NE-E winds across the NW part of the basin.

The current tropical wave will move across parts of Central
America and the western Caribbean Sea. It will interact with an
upper level trough, with thunderstorms forecast across the west
Caribbean Sea through tonight. Atlantic Ocean high pressure will
support strong trade winds in the south central Caribbean Sea
through Sunday, reaching near gale overnight off Colombia and
northwest Venezuela, diminishing early next week. Fresh to strong
winds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras through tonight.
Moderate to locally fresh trades will prevail elsewhere through
early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Abundant moisture also prevails across the west Atlantic, on the
eastern side of the Gulf of Mexico-Yucatan Peninsula mid to upper
level trough. Scattered showers with embedded tstms are occurring
over parts of Cuba, the Bahamas and E of the Florida Peninsula to
about 77W. A weak 1018 mb low is located near 31N81W. This low
will dissipate by tonight. Three tropical waves are moving across
the basin. Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details.
A cold front clips the northern forecast waters, mainly between
20W and 30W. A surface ridge extends across the remainder of the
basin, anchored by a 1029 mb high centered near 32N39W.

An east-to-west ridge will meander between 27N and 28N through
the middle of the next week, supporting moderate to fresh winds
south of 22N, pulsing to 25 knots off Hispaniola during overnight
hours. Light to moderate southerly wind flow is expected along
and north of the ridge.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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