[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 081154
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
754 AM EDT Fri Jun 8 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1115 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave extends its axis along 32W and
south of 15N, moving westward at about 15 kt. This wave is noted
at 700 mb. Convection is limited along the wave's axis.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave has its axis along 53W, south of
15N, moving westward 10 to 15 kt. This wave is noted at 700 mb.
Scattered moderate convection is where the wave's axis meets the
ITCZ.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave extends its axis along 83W, south of
17N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. The wave is moving through
the area of an already-existing convection mainly due to an upper-
level trough that extends across the western Caribbean.


...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Africa near 17N16W
and 10N27W. The ITCZ continues from 08N32W to 08N49W. Scattered
showers are noted within 75 nm on either side of the ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Upper-level cyclonic wind flow spans over the basin, with a
trough extending along 85W. Scattered moderate convection covers
the eastern Gulf mainly east of 88W affecting portions of Florida
Peninsula and the Straits of Florida. A surface trough is moving
across the Bay of Campeche with axis along 92W.

A surface trough will develop along the Yucatan Peninsula late
each afternoon, drift westward across the southwest Gulf during
the overnight hours accompanied by a fresh to locally strong wind
shift, with the trough dissipating along 95W during the late
mornings. An east to west ridge will meander across the northern
Gulf waters through the period with moderate southeast return flow
increasing to fresh breeze late Sun. A mid to upper low will meander
over the northeast Gulf for a few more days enhancing convection
over the eastern Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave, with axis along 83W, will pass west through the
western Caribbean and interact with an upper trough with showers
thunderstorms forecast across the west Caribbean through tonight.
Abundant moisture, with embedded showers and tstms, are noted
over the NW Caribbean and Cuba. A diffluent pattern aloft,
associated with the aforementioned upper trough, is helping to
induce this convective activity.

Atlantic high pressure will support strong, except near gale
nocturnal trades, across the south-central and southwest Caribbean
through the upcoming weekend, with the winds diminishing some
early next week. Fresh to strong winds are expected in the Gulf of
Honduras through tonight. Moderate to locally fresh trades will
prevail elsewhere through early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Abundant moisture also prevails across the west Atlantic, on the
eastern side of the Gulf of Mexico-W Caribbean upper-level trough.
Scattered showers with embedded tstms is noted across the Bahamas
and E of the Florida Peninsula to about 77W. Two tropical waves
are moving across the basin. Refer to the Tropical Waves section
above for details. A surface ridge extends across the remainder of
the basin, anchored by a 1028 mb high centered near the Azores at
39N32W.

An east to west ridge will meander between 27N and  28N through
Tue. Fresh to locally strong nocturnal easterly winds are forecast
along the northern coast of Hispaniola, with moderate easterly
low forecast elsewhere south of the ridge. Light to moderate
southerly flow is expected north of the ridge.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
GR
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