[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 070005
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 PM EDT Wed Jun 6 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 20W from 13N southward,
moving west at about 10 kt. Precipitation: scattered moderate
convection is from 05N to 09N between 18W and 22W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave axis is along 45W from 13N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 kt. No convection is observed
at this time with this feature.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave axis extends from 18N70W to 10N72W,
moving westward 15 kt. Precipitation: no significant convective
precipitation is apparent in satellite imagery due to Saharan dust
in the wave's environment.

A tropical wave extends over the Yucatan Peninsula along 91W,
moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
observed south of 20N between 88W-94W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N14W to 08N19W. The ITCZ is
along 07N23W to 04N40W. Precipitation: Scattered showers are
noted along the ITCZ between 22W-28W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends from a 1009 mb Atlantic Ocean low
pressure center that is near 36N71W, across northern Florida,
continuing across the northernmost parts of the Gulf of Mexico,
and beyond the Upper Texas Gulf coast. Precipitation: scattered
moderate to isolated strong showers cover the Gulf of Mexico from
25N northward between 80W and 91W, including across Florida.

An upper level trough extends from the NE corner of the Gulf of
Mexico into the Yucatan Peninsula. The current 91W tropical wave
is moving across the Yucatan Peninsula also with scattered
moderate convection.

A stationary front across the NE Gulf from northern Florida to
New Orleans will dissipate slowly through tonight. A surface
trough will develop along the Yucatan Peninsula each afternoon,
and then drift westward in the the SW Gulf at night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough extends from the NE corner of the Gulf of
Mexico into the Yucatan Peninsula. Broad upper level anticyclonic
wind flow spans the rest of the Caribbean Sea, to the east of the
trough. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally
strong rainshowers are from 15N northward from 74W westward, being
on the eastern side of the trough.

The monsoon trough is along 10N from NW Colombia westward, beyond
NW Costa Rica. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong rainshowers are from 13N southward from 76W
westward to Central America.

Fresh to strong trade winds will persist in the central Caribbean
Sea, The wind speeds will be near gale force, mainly at night,
near Colombia and Venezuela through Sunday. Fresh to strong winds
are expected in the Gulf of Honduras through Saturday night.
Moderate to fresh trade winds will prevail elsewhere through
Sunday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends from a 1009 mb Atlantic Ocean low
pressure center that is near 33N76W, across northern Florida,
continuing across the northernmost parts of the Gulf of Mexico,
and beyond the Upper Texas Gulf coast. Precipitation: broken to
overcast multilayered clouds and isolated moderate to locally
strong rainshowers are to the north of the line that runs from
27N80W at the coast of Florida beyond 32N67W. Other isolated
moderate to locally strong rainshowers are present from 25N
northward between 60W and 74W.

A surface ridge extends from a 1025 mb Atlantic Ocean high
pressure center that is near 32N26W, to 27N40W, to a 1020 mb high
pressure center that is near 24N54W, to 22N70W, and eventually
toward NW Cuba.

Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are
from 20N to 28N between 70W and 80W, covering the Bahamas and
parts of Cuba. Abundant moisture is streaming northeastward, on
the eastern side of the NE Gulf of Mexico-to-Yucatan Peninsula
upper level trough.

A broad ridge across the west-central Atlantic Ocean will
dominate the regional weather through Sunday. A stationary front
will linger off northeast Florida through Thursday.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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