[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051720
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
120 PM EDT Tue Jun 5 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A low amplitude tropical wave axis is along 40W S of 12N moving
west at 15-20 kt. Isolated moderate convection is noted where the
wave meets the ITCZ.

A tropical wave axis along 61W/62W S of 16N is moving west across
the eastern Caribbean at 15 kt. A surge of moisture associated
with the wave is evident from TPW imagery. The Windward Islands
are currently reporting showers in the vicinity with the wave
passage. The wave will cross S of Puerto Rico today, and will
reach Hispaniola on Wed. Convection will be limited with the wave
passage due to the presence of African dust over the NE Caribbean.
A recent scatterometer pass indicates the wind shift related to
the wave axis.

A tropical wave axis along 86W S of 20N is moving westward at 15
kt across the NW Caribbean and Central America. Abundant moisture
is related to the wave based on TPW animation. The wave is
generating scattered showers and isolated tstms over parts of
northern Central America and the NW Caribbean. Moisture from this
wave will spread across the Yucatan Peninsula late today.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near new to
new. The ITCZ continues westward from new to new to 16n49w to the
coast of South America near 13n51w. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is noted from 03N-08N between 06W-15W.
Scattered moderate is within about 120 nm S of the ITCZ axis
between 23W-32W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends from NE Florida to across the NE Gulf
to southern Mississippi. A band of showers and thunderstorms is
associated with the front, forecast to slowly dissipate through
Wed. The remainder of the Gulf is under the influence of a 1018 mb
high pressure located near 24n83w. This system extends a ridge
toward the coast of Texas and is producing a gentle to moderate
anticyclonic flow.

A surface trough will develop along the Yucatan Peninsula
each afternoon, pushing W into the SW Gulf during the evening
before dissipating. Fresh northeast to east winds will accompany
this trough. Otherwise, ridging extending from the Atlc will
prevail across the basin.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scatterometer data along with surface observations show fresh to
strong winds across the south-central Caribbean while altimeter
data indicate seas to near 11 ft with the strongest winds. Fresh
to strong trade winds will persist in the central Caribbean with
winds reaching near gale force at times in the S central Caribbean.
Winds may increase to minimal gale force briefly Fri night.
Moderate to fresh trades will prevail elsewhere, pulsing to fresh
to strong at times in the Gulf of Honduras.

A pair of tropical waves are moving across the Caribbean Sea.
Please, see Tropical Waves section for details. SW winds ahead
of an upper level trough extending across the Straits of Florida
into the Yucatan Peninsula is transporting abundant upper level
moisture from Central America across the NW Caribbean into eastern
Cuba. Scattered to numerous showers with embedded thunderstorms
are noted over the SW Caribbean, likely associated with the
proximity of the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ. This convective activity is
affecting parts of Panama and Costa Rica. Moisture will remain
high across this area over the next couple of days, keeping the
likelihood of more convective activity.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends across the far NW portion of the
forecast area and northern Florida into the NE Gulf of Mexico.
Scattered showers and tstms is along the frontal boundary. This
front will linger through the next several days. The remainder of
the Atlantic is dominated by a broad ridge anchored by a nearly
stationary 1024 mb high pressure centered near new. The high is
expected to strengthen slightly across eastern waters Thu through
Fri night.

SAL imagery indicates an area of Saharan dust extending across
the Atlantic to over the Lesser Antilles behind the tropical wave
located along 61W/62W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
GR
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net