[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051147
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
746 AM EDT Tue Jun 5 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1115 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave axis is along 38W/39W S of 13N in the eastern
Atlantic, moving west at 15 kt. TPW imagery depicts abundant
moisture in the wave environment south of 10N. Isolated moderate
convection is noted where the wave meets the ITCZ.

A tropical wave axis along 60W/61W S of 14N is moving west into
the eastern Caribbean at 10-15 kt. A surge of moisture associated
with the wave is evident from TPW imagery. Scattered moderate
convection is east of the wave near the coast of South America.
The passage of the wave will bring some shower activity across
Windward Islands today.

A tropical wave axis along 85W S of 18N is moving westward at 10-
15 kt across Central America. Abundant moisture is related to the
wave based on TPW animation. A cluster of moderate to strong
convection persists over the SW Caribbean in the wake of the wave
axis. The wave is also inducing a cluster of moderate to isolated
strong convection in the eastern Pacific S of Panama. Showers
from this wave will spread across the Central America today, and
reach the Yucatan Peninsula tonight.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 10N14W
to 08N18W. The ITCZ continues westward from 08N18W to the coast
of South America near 04N52W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is within 180 nm south of the ITCZ between 24W-35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends from the Florida panhandle across
Louisiana into eastern Texas. Scattered showers are noted along
this frontal boundary. This front is expected to dissipate later
today. Weak high pressure OF 1017 mb is centered over western
Cuba. A trough will form over the western Yucatan Peninsula each
evening and move westward overnight in the SW Gulf. Fresh
northeast to east winds will accompany this trough. Easterly winds
will increase over south-central waters and the Yucatan Channel
Thu night and Fri.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scatterometer data along with surface observations show fresh to
strong winds across the south-central Caribbean. Trades in the
central Caribbean will increase to near gale force along the
coast of Colombia Thu night and Friday. High pressure north of
the area and lower pressure expected in the eastern Pacific, due
to possible tropical cyclone formation, will allow east winds to
increase to strong over the Gulf of Honduras Thu night and Fri.

SW winds ahead of an upper level trough from southern Florida to
Bay of Campeche is transporting abundant upper level moisture
from Central America across the NW Caribbean into eastern Cuba.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The region is dominated by a broad ridge anchored by a stationary
1023 mb high pressure centered near 32N22W. The high is expected
to strengthen slightly across eastern waters Thu through Fri
night.

SAL imagery indicates an area of Saharan dust extending across
the Atlantic to near the Lesser Antilles behind the tropical
wave located along 60W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
GR
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