[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 040007
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
758 PM EDT Sun Jun 3 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Fuego Volcano Eruption in Guatemala...An explosive volcanic ash
emission occured around 03/1700 UTC. Satellite imagery showed
ash reaching an elevation of 50,000 ft. Latest model guidance
suggests that plumes of volcanic ash could reach the western
Caribbean mainly west of 80W during the next 24 hours. Please
refer to the latest volcanic ash advisory from NESDIS-SAB for
more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is over the eastern Atlantic with axis extending
from 13N29W to 01N29W, moving westward at 15 kt. TPW imagery
depicts abundant moisture in the wave's environment and model
diagnostics show a trough at 700 mb. Scattered showers are noted
along the wave's axis mainly south of 06N.

A tropical wave is over the central Atlantic with axis extending
from 14N51W to 00N51W, moving westward at 15 kt. The wave is
depicted as a broad trough of moisture on TPW imagery. Scattered
moderate convection is within 180 nm W of the wave axis S of 09N.

A tropical wave is over the central Caribbean with axis along 76W
S of 16N. This wave is moving westward at 15 kt. The wave is
rather ill-defined at the surface at this time. Convection is
noted over N Colombia, however, this is most likely due to the
monsoon trough extending from the E Pacific.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Africa near
12N16W to 08N21W. The ITCZ extends from 08N21W to 06N28W. The
ITCZ resumes W of a tropical wave near 05N30W to 05N40W to
06N50W. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N-07N between
13W-17W, and from 03N-06N between 30W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1017 mb high is centered over the eastern Gulf of Mexico waters
near 26N88W. Light to gentle anticyclonic surface winds are over
the Gulf with weakest winds near the center of the high.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is over the N
Gulf N of 29N mostly over S Louisiana and N Florida. Scattered
moderate convection is inland over the Yucatan Peninsula.

In the upper levels, an upper-level low is centered over the
Yucatan Peninsula near 19N91W. Upper-level diffluence is noted
over Cuba and the Bahamas due to this low. High level volcanic
ash is also moving from Guatemala towards Cuba and the Bahamas.

A weak cold front will move across the northern Gulf Mon morning
before becoming stationary across the NE Gulf and northern
Florida later on Mon and through Wed, dissipating by early Thu.
A trough will form over the western Yucatan Peninsula each
evening and move westward across the SW Gulf during the
overnight hours through the period as the weak high pressure
remains in place. E winds are expected to increase over the far
S central waters and in the entrance to the Yucatan Channel on
Fri.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Moderate to fresh tradewinds prevail over the basin, with
strongest winds along the coast of northern Colombia. Scattered
showers remain over the Nw Caribbean. Widely scattered moderate
convetion is over Central America from Belize to Costa Rica.
Scattered moderate to strong convection is over Central America
due to the monsoon trough south of 10N between 73W-85W.

High pressure in the central Atlantic will maintain fresh to
strong trades in the S central Caribbean with mainly moderate
to fresh trades elsewhere, except gentle to moderate
over the NW Caribbean. The combination of the high pressure and
pressures expected to lower to the west of Central America by
the middle of the upcoming week will bring strong winds over the
Gulf of Honduras. Fuego Volcano in Guatemala at 14.3N 90.9W is
currently erupting. Plumes of volcanic ash mixed with cloudiness
may move over portions of the western Caribbean through Mon
afternoon.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough over the central Atlantic extends from 32N52W to
27N55W. Scattered showers are noted within 60 nm of the trough
axis. To the east, the tail end of a stationary front extends
from 32N42W to 26N48W. A 1026 mb high is centered over the E
Atlantic near 35N22W. A surface ridge axis extends SW from this
high to 22N50W with mostly fair weather.

A cold front will move across the Carolinas into the western
Atlantic Mon, and move S of 31N Mon night. The tail end of the
front will stall across the waters north of 28N Tue through Wed
night before becoming diffuse on Thu. Otherwise, the weak high
pressure will remain across the basin during the period.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net