[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 032007
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion...UPDATED
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
406 PM EDT Sun Jun 3 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES (update)...

Fuego Volcano Eruption...An explosive volcanic ash emission has
been noticed in satellite imagery reaching an elevation of 50,000
ft. Latest model guidance suggests that plumes of volcanic ash
could reach the western Caribbean mainly west of 80W during the
next 24 hours. Please refer to the latest volcanic ash advisory
from NESDIS-SAB for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is over the eastern Atlantic with axis extending
from 13N26W to 00N26W, moving westward at about 15 kt. TPW
imagery depicts abundant moisture in the wave's environment and
model diagnostics show a trough at 700 mb. Scattered showers are
noted along the wave's axis mainly south of 06N.

A tropical wave is over the central Atlantic with axis extending
from 14N50W to 00N50W, moving westward at 15 kt. The wave is
depicted as a broad trough of moisture on TPW imagery. Scattered
moderate convection associated with the wave prevails south of
09N.

A tropical wave is over the central Caribbean with axis along 75W
and south of 16N. This wave is moving westward at around 15 kt.
The wave is rather ill-defined at the surface at this time. No
deep convection is associated with this wave. Only isolated
showers and thunderstorms are occurring along its southern portion
over northern Colombia.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Africa near
08N13W to 06N21W. The ITCZ extends from 05N30W to 07N49W.
Scattered showers are noted along both boundaries.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1016 mb high is centered over the eastern Gulf of Mexico waters
near 25N87W. Light to gentle anticyclonic surface winds are over
the Gulf with weakest winds near the center of the high. In the
upper levels, an upper-level low is centered over the Yucatan
Peninsula near 19N91W. Upper-level diffluence is noted over Cuba
and the Bahamas due to this low.

Surface troughing will form over the western Yucatan each evening
and drift over the southwest Gulf overnight through Wed. A weak
cold front will enter the northern Gulf Mon morning and move
across the northern Florida Peninsula and the NE Gulf through Tue
morning. The front will then stall across central Florida before
dissipating late Wed. Elsewhere, a high pressure ridge will extend
from the southeast Gulf to Texas the next several days.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Moderate to fresh tradewinds prevail over the basin, with
strongest winds along the coast of northern Colombia. Scattered
showers remain west of 80W enhanced by a diffluent flow aloft.
Scattered moderate convection is over Central America due to the
monsoon trough south of 10N between 78W-83W.

High pressure in the central Atlantic will maintain fresh to
strong trades in the south-central Caribbean over the next
several days, with mainly moderate to fresh trades elsewhere,
except gentle to moderate over the northwest Caribbean. As
pressures lower west of Central America starting the middle of
next week, strong winds will expand from the central Caribbean to
the Gulf of Honduras.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough extends from 31N56W to 28N56W. Scattered showers
are noted along the trough. To the east, a 1016 mb low is centered
near 31N43W with a cold front from the low to 28N45W, then
becoming stationary to 26N49W. A 1027 mb high is centered near
35N22W. A surface ridge extends across the remainder of the
basin.

Surface ridging will prevail from the central Atlantic to the
Gulf of Mexico through early next week. A cold front will move
across the Carolinas into the western Atlantic Mon morning,
crossing south of 31N by Mon evening. The tail end of the front
will stall across the waters north of 28N Tue through Tue night
before becoming diffuse on Wed.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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