[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 020445
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1245 AM EDT Sat Jun 2 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is
listed on the website: WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-
MARINE/BULLETIN/GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. The forecast that is valid
until 03/0000 UTC has a northerly near gale or gale in zones AGADIR
and TARFAYA.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 33W S of 12N moving
westward at 15 knots. The wave is depicted as a broad trough of
moisture on SSMI TPW imagery. The wave is void of convection.

An E Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 64W S of 14N moving
westward at 10 knots. The wave shows up well on SSMI total
precipitable water imagery. Scattered moderate convection is from
08N-11N between 60W-64W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through Guinea near 11N15W to 06N20W.
The ITCZ continues from 06N20W to 04N26W to 04N31W. The ITCZ
resumes W of a tropical wave near 04N35W to 01N38W to the coast
of Brazil near 01S48W. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N-
08N between 12W-23W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1018 mb high is centered over the W Atlantic near 26N72W. A
ridge axis extends to the Gulf of Mexico along 26N to 90W.
Scattered showers are over the eastern portion of the Florida
Peninsula. More scattered showers are over the SE Gulf, W Cuba,
and the Yucatan Peninsula.

An upper level trough is over the Gulf of Mexico with an embedded
upper level low centered over the Yucatan Peninsula near 19N89W.

Troughing will form over the western Yucatan each evening and
drift over the southwest Gulf overnight through Tue. A frontal
trough will cross the NE gulf Sun into Mon with moderate to
locally fresh SW winds. Elsewhere, ridging across the northeastern
to eastern Gulf will drift SW to the central Gulf late Sat and
prevail through most of the remainder period supporting gentle to
moderate winds.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

10-20 kt tradewinds are over the Caribbean Sea with strongest
winds along the coast of N Colombia. Scattered showers are over
the NW Caribbean, Cuba, and the Yucatan Peninsula.

The monsoon trough is along 08N between Costa Rica and Colombia.
Scattered moderate to strong convection is over the SW Caribbean
S of 11N.

An upper level trough is over the W Caribbean W of 81W. A good
amount of upper level diffluence is noted over Cuba enhancing the
showers. An upper level ridge is over the central Caribbean
between 70W-81W. An upper level trough is over the E Caribbean.

High pressure in the central Atlantic will maintain fresh to
strong trades in the S central Caribbean through mid next week.
Moderate to fresh trades will dominate elsewhere, except in the NW
Caribbean where winds will be gentle to moderate. Winds will
increase to fresh to strong briefly in the Gulf of Honduras Tue
night through Wed night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1018 mb high is centered over the W Atlantic near 26N72W.
Another 1018 mb high is centered near 30N60W. A cold front passes
through 32N40W to 27N53W. Scattered moderate convection is within
60 nm of the front. A 1030 mb high is centered over the E Atlantic
near 38N23W. A surface ridge axis extends SW from this high to
22N43W.

Over the W Atlantic the surface highs will dissipate Sat,
however, surface ridging will prevail ahead of the next frontal
boundary to move across the Carolinas into the western Atlantic
early next week. The front will stall across the waters north of
28N through Tue before becoming diffuse late Wed.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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