[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 260605
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT Thu Jul 26 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave came off the W coast of Africa yesterday evening.
The wave axis is E of the Cape Verde Islands along 20W from 07N to
18N. The wave is in a moderate deep layer wind shear environment
and underneath diffluent flow aloft. This along with shallow
moisture S of the Cape Verde Islands is supporting scattered
showers and tstms from 06N to 12N E of 22W. The remainder wave
environment lacks convection due in part to the presence of
Saharan dry air and dust.

A tropical wave is over central Atlantic with axis along 35W
extending from 06N-19N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. A large area
of Saharan dry air and dust continue to hinder convection from
developing at the time.

A tropical wave is over the central Atlantic with axis along 49W
from 05N-16N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Strong deep layer wind
shear and Saharan dry air and dust hinder deep convection at the
time. Shallow moisture and middle level diffluence support
isolated showers and tstms mainly ahead of the wave near the ITCZ
from 09N-11N between 50W-59W.

A tropical wave is over the central Caribbean with axis along 71W
from 08N-20N, moving westward at 15 kt. CIRA LPW imagery show a
very dry environment across the central Caribbean, which along
with strong deep layer wind shear hinder convection S of
Hispaniola. Shallow moisture and middle level diffluence support
scattered showers and tstms ahead of the wave in the Windward
Passage...off SW Haiti.

A tropical wave has moved inland the Yucatan Peninsula, Belize and
into EPAC waters. Its axis is along 89W, moving W at 10-15 kt. Except
for El Salvador and the EPAC waters, there is no convection
associated with this wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Africa near
14N17W to 12N31W. The ITCZ extends from 09N38W to 09N45W...then
resumes W of a tropical wave near 09N52W and continues to the
coast of South America near 08N59W. For information on convection,
see the tropical waves section.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level trough prevails across the E Gulf with base
extending SW to the Bay of Campeche, which supports a weak cold
front that across the Florida Panhandle to SE Louisiana. It also
supports a surface trough that extends from the Florida Big Bend
SW to 24N88W. Isolated showers are within 75 nm ahead of this
trough. The trough is forecast to dissipate today while the front
lift NE of the area. Otherwise, the Atlantic subtropical ridge
covers the remainder SE Gulf and will continue to progress
westward across the remainder basin through the weekend. Light to
gentle variable flow will dominate across the basin during this
period.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level low centered near Jamaica, middle level diffluence
along with shallow moisture in the NW Caribbean support scattered
showers and tstms N of 17N between 73W and 81W. In the SW basin,
the monsoon trough supports isolated showers and tstms S of 11N.
GOES-16 water vapor imagery show very dry conditions across the
remainder of the basin while an enhanced RGB show a thin layer of
Saharan Air Dust moving across the area. Strong deep layer wind
shear is also noted in the E Caribbean. These hostile factors are
suppressing convection elsewhere. Otherwise, a tropical wave
moves over central Caribbean waters. See the waves section above
for further details. A new tropical wave is forecast to move
across the Lesser Antilles Friday night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Three tropical waves are moving across the basin lacking
convection due in part to the presence of the dry air in the
Saharan Air Layer. Refer to the tropical waves section above for
more details. Scattered showers and tstms are N of the Bahamas W
of 76W being supported by an upper trough along the E CONUS
extending to W Atlc waters. Farther east, an upper level low
supports a surface trough along 27N62W to 19N66W which generates
isolated showers and tstms N of 25N between 61W-66W. Otherwise,
the Atlantic subtropical ridge dominates the remainder basin being
anchored by a 1031 mb high centered near 36N55W. Surface ridging
will dominate the central and eastern Atlantic through the end of
the week providing stable and dry conditions.

For additional information
please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Ramos
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