[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 201206
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
806 AM EDT Fri Jul 20 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1145 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is east of the Cape Verde Islands with axis
extending from 05N-18N along 21W. Significant Saharan dry air and
dust intrusion into the wave environment along with strong deep
layer wind shear in the region have greatly reduced the convection
associated with this wave. Isolated showers are confined to the
region S of the monsoon trough from 05N-09N between 12W-23W.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis extending
from 03N-16N along 37W, moving W at 15 kt. The wave is moving
across an extensive Saharan Air Layer Outbreak with dry air and
dust hindering convection.

A low amplitude tropical wave is over the central Atlantic with
axis extending from 02N-11N, moving W at 15 kt. No convection is
associated with this wave at this time.

A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean along 74W, moving W
at 20 kt. The wave is in a strong deep layer wind shear
environment. Scattered moderate convection is over Hispaniola.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from W Africa near 16N16W to
09N22W to 07N36W. The ITCZ begins near 07N40W and continues to
South America near 05N52W. See tropical waves section for
information on convection.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 20/0900 UTC, a 1012 mb low is centered off the Florida
Panhandle near 30N86W. Widely scattered moderate convection is
over the NE Gulf of Mexico N of 27N and E of 90W to include NW
Florida. This convection is being enhanced by upper level
diffluence to the S of an upper level trough centered N of
Florida. A 1015 mb high is over the central Gulf near 24N89W. 10
kt anticyclonic surface winds are noted around this high. Expect
the surface low to dissipate tonight, and a high pressure ridge to
prevail over the Gulf along 25N through early next week. A
surface trough will also move off the Yucatan Peninsula into the
Bay of Campeche each evening, accompanied by fresh nocturnal
winds.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is over the central Caribbean. See section on
tropical waves above. RGB imagery from GOES-16 shows a thin layer
of Saharan Dust moving across the central and western portions of
the basin. Expect the wave to move over the western Caribbean
today. Scattered moderate convection is over the SW basin Sunday
primarily due to the eastern extent of the E Pacific monsoon
trough. Fresh to strong winds are expected to continue over the
central basin through the weekend. Near gale force winds will be
likely, however, along the coast of Colombia this weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1034 mb Azores High is centered near 41N36W. A surface ridge
axis extends SW to the W Atlantic near 28N70W. Widely scattered
moderate convection is over the W Atlantic N of 28N and W of 70W,
mostly due to upper level diffluence. Most of the central Atlantic
N of 20N between 35W-65W has fair weather.

For additional information
please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MRF/NAR
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