[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 171204
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
804 AM EDT Tue Jul 17 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

SW Caribbean Sea gale warning: The pressure gradient is forecast
to tighten between strong central Atlantic high pressures and
broad low pressure over the southwestern Caribbean Sea beginning
late Wed night increasing the present ongoing strong NE-E winds
over the area from 11N-15N between 70W-77W, including the waters
along the coast of Colombia, to increase to minimal gale force.
These winds will weaken to just below gale force in the early
morning hours of Thu. Seas are expected to build to the range of
10-14 ft with the gale force winds, then subside to 8-11 ft Thu
morning. Please read the High Seas Forecast, under the AWIPS/WMO
headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave was identified yesterday to be moving through
western Atlantic, and as of 0600 UTC this morning it was analyzed
along 15W from 03N-16N, moving W at 15 kt. A well defined 700 mb
trough is noted together with an inverted-V pattern in its
associated cloud/convection structure. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is ahead of the wave from 08N-12N between 17W-
20W. Saharan dust is noted on GOES-16 imagery behind and around
this tropical wave.

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends from near 20N45W to
14N47W to 06N48W, moving westward at 15-20 kt. The wave is
depicted on GOES-16 RGB imagery as having a rather broad
inverted-V shape envelope of broken to overcast stratocumulus
clouds from 09N-22N between 38W- 53W. Scattered moderate
convection is seen within 120 nm to the west of the wave from
14N-17N, and within 180 nm east of the wave from 06N-07N.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are within 180 nm to
the west of the wave from 10N-14N. The GOES-16 RGB images of the
far eastern Atlantic are depicting yet another massive plume of
Saharan dry air and associated dust following in behind the wave
from 09N-27N east of 36W to well inland of W Africa.

A tropical wave axis over the central Caribbean extends from just
west of Haiti to 15N75W to inland NW Colombia near 07N745, moving
westward at 20 kt. This wave has Saharan dust following the wave
axis as observed in GOES-16 satellite imagery. No deep convection
is presently noted with this wave over the Caribbean waters.
Scattered moderate to strong convection is being enhanced over
NW Colombia, including its nearby coastal waters from 07N-10N
between 74W-78W. Isolated showers are possible elsewhere within
60-90 nm of its axis.

A tropical wave pulling farther away from the region has its axis
roughly along 91W S of 20N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Only
isolated showers and thunderstorms are noted within 90 nm east of
this wave over northern and central Guatemala. Future details on
this wave will be described in the eastern Pacific Tropical
Weather Discussion.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from W Africa near 18N16W to 10N21W to
07N30W, where latest scatterometer data indicates that the ITCZ
begins and to 09N40W to 09N46W. It resumes west of the above
described tropical wave at 08N49W to 06N55W. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is within 240 nm southeast and south of
the trough between 17W-20W. Scattered moderate convection is
within 60 nm south of the ITCZ between 28W-34W, and also south of
the ITCZ within 30 nm of line from 06N38W to 05N45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

The western periphery of Atlantic high pressure ridging extends
E to W over the central gulf waters.Light to moderate
anticyclonic flow are over the gulf waters. Current NWS mosaic
radar shows scattered moderate convection over the northern gulf
north of 28N between 88W-91W. Isolated showers and thunderstorms
are over the remainder of the gulf waters. Expect rather weak
high pressure to prevail across the northern gulf waters through
Thu. A surface trough will move westward off the Yucatan Peninsula
each evening through Thu, enhancing nocturnal winds over the
eastern section of the SW Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for details about
pulsing gale force winds near the coast of Colombia. Aside from
the tropical waves mentioned above, an upper level low is noted
on water vapor imagery just to the south of the Yucatan Channel.
Mainly fresh E winds will continue over the central Caribbean Sea
and strong NE-E winds will be over the SW and S central sections
of the Caribbean through Thu.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak surface trough over the W Atlantic extends from 32N59W to
29N65W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are within
60 nm of the trough. This trough will slowly weaken Tue as the
supporting upper trough lifts to the NE away from it. High
pressure will build in the wake of the trough. A large area of
Saharan Air Layer (SAL) dust that is currently over the central
Atlantic from 08N- 24N and between 45W- 60W will continue to
translate westward through the rest of the week. A weaker area of
dust from 09N-27N between the SE Bahamas and 60W is also moving
westward.

For additional information
please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa/Aguirre
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