[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141557
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion...Updated
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1157 AM EDT Sat Jul 14 2018

Updated Special Features section to include remnants of Beryl
information

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

An area of low pressure, associated with the remnants of Beryl,
is located about 235 nm north-northwest of Bermuda. Satellite
imagery indicates that the associated deep convection is
becoming better organized, and if current trends continue
advisories on a subtropical or tropical cyclone could be re-
initiated later today. The convection consists of moderate
isolated strong convection has increased during the morning
within 180 nm north-northeast of the center. The low pressure
now has a high chance of becoming a tropical cyclone during the
next 48 hours. Refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC for more
information.

SW Caribbean gale warning off coast of Colombia: NE gale-force
winds that occurred within 90 nm off the coast of Colombia
during the overnight hours have diminished to strong to near
gale force. Resultant seas with the recent gale force winds are
in the 10-13 ft range from 11N-14N between 74W and 75W. The
pressure gradient will tighten up again tonight into early Sun,
and from Sun night into early Mon to allow for a repeat pulsing
of the NE gale force winds to once again develop within the same
area. Model guidance indicates that these winds will once again
pulse to minimal gale force Tue night until early on Wed
morning. Seas are expected to build to the range of about 10-14
ft with these wind conditions. Please read the High Seas
Forecast, under the AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, for
more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern Atlantic broad tropical wave as seen in early
morning visible satellite imagery has its axis along 21W from 08N
to 18N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection associated with this wave is along its southern extent
tied mainly to the monsoon trough, and it is noted from 08N-10N
between 21W- 25W. Similar convection is behind the wave from 08N-
10N between 14W-16W and from 10N-12N between 17W-19W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis extending from near
20N47W to 10N51W. This wave is observed as having a broad
inverted-V shape cloud structure as seen in satellite imagery as
it moves westward at 15-20 kt. The wave is moving through a
rather dry and stable environment, and is void of deep
convection. Only isolated showers and thunderstorms are seen
behind the axis from 08N-12N between 41W-45W.

An eastern Caribbean Sea tropical wave has its axis along 65W/66W
S of 19N, moving westward at 15 kt. The northern portion is
approaching the vicinity of Puerto Rico. Expect increasing
moisture with scattered showers and isolated to affect some areas
of the eastern Caribbean through tonight in the wake of the wave.
This shower and thunderstorm may be further aided by an upper-
level trough that extends from the Mona Passage to the far SW
Caribbean.

A central Caribbean Sea tropical wave has its axis along 75W,
moving westward at 15 kt. The northern extent of this wave is
passing across the Windward Passage. No significant deep
convective precipitation is noted in latest satellite imagery,
however isolated showers moving quickly westward are possible
near the wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Guinea
Bissau near 11N15W, to 10N20W and 10N28W. The ITCZ continues
from 10N28W to 09N32W 10N41W, 09N48W, 10N54W, and 08N60W.
Aside from convection associated with the tropical wave along 21W,
only scattered moderate convection is seen within 60 nm north
of the ITCZ axis between 59W-60W, and west to just inland
northeastern Venezuela.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A ridge continues to dominate the Gulf waters, with two weak high
pressure centers of 1021 mb located across the northern Gulf.
Under the influence of this system, mainly light to gentle
anticyclonic flow will prevail across much of the Gulf region
this upcoming weekend, with seas generally under 5 ft. Gentle to
moderate SE-S winds are expected across the western Gulf on the
western periphery on the ridge. According to the GOES-16 RGB
Geocolor imagery, African dust has reached the SE Gulf, including
the Yucatan Channel.

Weak high pressure will prevail across the area through
Wednesday. A surface trough will move westward off the Yucatan
Peninsula each evening through Wednesday. It will enhance
nocturnal winds in the SW corner of the Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Two tropical waves will continue to move across the basin. Refer
to the Tropical Waves section above for details.

A gale warning is in effect for the waters near the coast of
Colombia. Refer to the Special Features section above for more
information on this event.

Saharan dust covers most of the Caribbean Sea, including the
Greater Antilles, where partly cloudy and hazy conditions
prevail.

A tropical wave along 75W will move across the central Caribbean
Sea through tonight, then across the western Caribbean Sea on
Sun and Sun night. An eastern Caribbean Sea tropical wave will
move through the rest of the eastern Caribbean Sea today, and
into the central Caribbean Sea tonight. A central Atlantic
tropical wave, with axis from 20N47W to 10N51W is forecast to
reach the easternmost sections of the Caribbean Sea by late Sun
into early Mon, move across the central Caribbean Sea late Mon
into early Tues, and then into the western Caribbean Sea late
Tues into early Wed. High pressure will build across the region
behind each passing tropical wave, in order to freshen trade
winds across the central Caribbean Sea.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough extends from the Special Features low pressure
associated with the remnants of Beryl southwestward to 32N68W
28N72W and to the NW Bahamas. Scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms are noted southeast and south of the trough north
of 27N between a line from 32N62W to 27N65W and 73W. The trough
will move little through Sun night while weakening.

The remainder of the Atlantic forecast area is under the
influence of the Bermuda-Azores High, with a center of 1033 mb
located WNW of the Azores near 37N41W. Its associated ridge
extends southwestward to the northeastern Caribbean and the SE
Bahamas. High pressure building westward from the central
Atlantic through Tue will support fresh to strong trade winds
south of 23N W of 65W. Winds will pulse to strong north of
Hispaniola at night this weekend. High pressure building
westward from the central Atlantic Ocean through Wed will
support fresh to strong trade winds south of 23N. The winds will
pulse to strong north of Hispaniola at night through the next
few days.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Aguirre
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