[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 110544
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
144 AM EDT Wed Jul 11 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Hurricane Chris at 11/0300 UTC is located near
34.2N 71.4W, or about 212 nm ESE of Cape Hatteras in North
Carolina. Chris is moving NE, or 50 degrees, 9 knots. The
estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb. The maximum
sustained wind speeds are 90 knots with gusts to 110 knots. Chris
is forecast to strengthen a little more through Wednesday night.
After that, Chris is forecast to become a strong post-tropical
cyclone by Thursday night or early Friday. Scattered moderate
convection is from 32N-37N between 68W-72W. Please read the
latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave has its axis along 37W from 06N-
19N, moving W at 10 to 15 knots. Saharan dust and dry air prevails
in the wave's environment inhibiting convection at this time.

A low amplitude tropical wave extends its axis along 59W from 02N-
13N, moving W 15 to 20 knots. Scattered showers are occurring
along the portion of the wave that prevails over South America
south of 06N. Expect moderate to locally fresh winds along the
wave as it continues moving westward through the tropical Atlantic
Ocean.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave, the remnants of Beryl, extends its
axis along 77W from 10N-21N, moving W at 15-20 knots. Broad
cyclonic wind flow covers the area between Cuba and the southern
Bahamas from 700 mb to 500 mb. Scattered showers are north of 18N
between 76W-80W.

A tropical wave extends along 98W across southern Mexico reaching
the EPAC waters near 10N98W. Scattered moderate convection is
observed along the wave's axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of SW
Senegal near 13N17W to 09N32W. The ITCZ is along 08N38W to 08N53W.
Scattered moderate convection prevails along the monsoon trough
mainly east of 20W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Broad surface anticyclonic flow covers the basin, with surface
ridge anchored by a 1018 mb high centered near 28N91W. A surface
trough extends across the Yucatan Peninsula with convection. This
feature will move west overnight across the Bay of Campeche with
similar activity. Little change is expected through the end of the
work-week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The main feature is the tropical wave, remnants of Beryl, along
77W. Refer to the section Tropical Waves section above for
details. The monsoon trough is along 09N between 76W-82W.
Scattered moderate convection is observed along this boundary.
Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate trades across the
basin except moderate to fresh winds south of 15N between 70W-
74W.

Expect for the tropical wave to continue moving west enhancing
convection across Cuba and southern Bahamas. Little change is
expected elsewhere.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Hurricane Chris is centered north of the area near 34.2N 71.4W.
Refer to the Special Features section above for details. Associated
winds and swell will affect the far N waters tonight before
conditions improve. A tropical wave extends along 37W. Refer to
the section above for details. A surface trough has developed
over the Bahamas from 24N76W to 22N77W. Scattered moderate
convection is observed with this feature between 74W-79W. Surface
ridge prevails across the remainder of the basin, anchored by a
1034 mb high centered near 42N33W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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