[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 092351
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 PM EDT Mon Jul 9 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Chris is stationary near 32.2N 74.4W at 2100 UTC
or about 190 nm SSE of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 996 mb. Maximum sustained winds are
60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from
31N-34N between 71W-76W. Chris is expected to remain nearly
stationary during the next day or so. Some strengthening is
expected during the next couple of days, and Chris is forecast
to become a hurricane Tue. A northeastward motion is forecast to
begin late Tue, with Chris accelerating northeastward Wed and
Thu. See the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 29W from 04N-20N, moving W at 15-20 kt.
This wave has a good signature at low to mid levels, as noted on
satellite imagery. Scattered showers are noted along the wave's
axis between 08N-12N.

A tropical wave is along 52W from 02N-13N moving W at 15-20 kt.
Scattered moderate convection is from 04N-07N between 46W-55W.
Expect fresh winds along the wave axis as it continues moving
westward across the tropical Atlantic.

A tropical wave, the remnants of Beryl, is along 67W from 10N-
20N, moving W at 20 kt. A gale area associated with the wave
over the Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico is no longer in effect.
Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 15N-20N bewteen
62W-68W.

A tropical wave is along 86W from 09N-22N, moving W at 15 kt.
Scattered moderate convection is over the NW Caribbean and the
Yucatan Peninsula from 15N-22N between 85W-89W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends SW off the coast of western Africa
from 14N16W to 09N25W. The ITCZ extends W of a tropical wave
from 09N31W to 04N51W. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N-
08N between 36W-46W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging prevails across the basin. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are over the E Gulf from 24N-27N between
84W-90W. A surface trough moving across the Bay of Campeche has
convection near Veracruz. ASCAT data shows gentle to moderate E
winds across the area. Expect a surface trough to move offshore
each evening off the Yucatan Peninsula into the Bay of Campeche.
Little change is expected elsewhere.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

See Tropical Waves section for details on two tropical waves in
the Caribbean. A gale associated with the remnants of Beryl is
no longer in effect for the Leeward Islands. Winds there will be
20-30 kt with occasional gusts to 35 kt, with seas to 10 ft.
Scattered moderate convection is from 15N-20N between 62W-68W.
The remnants of Beryl will move quickly west-northwest, passing
over Hispaniola tonight and emerging into the Atlantic near the
Bahamas Tuesday. An unfavorable upper level environment should
prevent redevelopment during the next day or so, but conditions
may become a little more conducive for regeneration Wed or Thu
north of the Bahamas. Strong to near gale-force winds will
continue off the northwest coast of Colombia during the next 48
hours. Moderate to fresh trades will prevail elsewhere across
the region.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to Special Features section for information on TS Chris.
The remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters are under the
influence of a ridge anchored by a 1028 mb surface high centered
near 35N54W. Moderate to fresh winds are observed along the
southern periphery of the ridge.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Mundell
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