[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 081201
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
801 AM EDT Sun Jul 8 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Beryl is centered near 13.7N 56.0W at 08/0900 UTC
or 240 nm E of Barbados moving WNW at 17 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt
with gusts to 50 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is
observed from 12N-16N between 53W-57W. Beryl is forecast to
gradually weaken during the next 48 hours, it is likely to become
a tropical depression after moving across the Lesser Antilles. The
system is then expected to degenerate into a tropical wave as it
moves across the eastern and central Caribbean Sea on Monday. See
latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC for more details.

Tropical Storm Chris is centered near 33.0N 75.5W at 08/0900 UTC
or 150 nm S of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina and it is stationary
at this time. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb.
Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from
30N-33N between 74W-81W. T.S.Chris is forecast to strengthen over
the next 48 hours. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 14W from 04N-18N moving W at 15 kt. This
wave has a good signature at low to mid levels, confirmed by
recent observations. Widely scattered moderate convection is
noted ahead of the wave's axis from 09N-14N between 14W-22W.

A tropical wave is along 39W from 01N-17N along moving W at 15-20
kt. No significant convection is related to this wave at this
time. Expect fresh winds along the wave's axis as it continues
westward across the tropical Atlantic.

A tropical wave is along 75W/76W from 10N-21N moving W at 15-20
kt. Scattered moderate convection is N of Jamaica from 10N-20N
between 75W-78W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends SW off the coast of western Africa from
21N17W to 07N31W, where scatterometer winds indicate a transition
to an ITCZ, then continues southwest to near 05N38W. Aside from
the convection associated with a tropical wave, scattered showers
are noted within 120 nm of the monsoon trough and ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough is over the N Gulf of Mexico along 30N. Radar
imagery shows isolated moderate convection N of 27N. Elsewhere,
radar imagery shows scattered showers over the SE Gulf S of 26N
and W of 84W mostly due to an upper level low centered near
25N85W. In addition, a surface trough is over the Bay of Campeche
along 93W S of 23N. Scattered moderate convection is near
Veracruz from 17N- 20N between 94W-97W. Expect, a surface trough
to move westward off the Yucatan Peninsula each evening enhancing
nocturnal winds across the southwest gulf waters through early
next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

See the Tropical Waves section for details on a tropical wave in
the central Caribbean. Also, refer to the Special Features
section above for details about T.S. Beryl. Strong to near gale-
force winds will continue off the northwest coast of Colombia
through the next 48 hours. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh trades
prevail.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the Special Features section for information on T.S.
Beryl and T.S. Chris. The remainder of the Atlantic forecast
waters is under the influence of a ridge anchored by a 1028 mb
surface high centered near 33N52W. Moderate to fresh winds are
observed along the southern periphery of the ridge.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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