[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 071751
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
145 PM EDT Sat Jul 07 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1730 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Beryl is centered near 12.1N 51.1W at 07/1500 UTC
or 720 nm ESE of The Lesser Antilles moving W-NW at 12 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Scattered moderate to
strong convection is observed within 180 nm E of the center.
Beryl is forecast to gradually weaken reaching near Hispaniola
on Tue and dissipate on Wed. See latest NHC forecast/advisory
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC for more details.

Tropical Depression Three is centered near 33.1N 74.8W at
07/1500 UTC or 150 nm SSE of Cape Hatteras North Carolina moving
N at 2 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1015 mb.
Maximum sustained wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt.
Scattered moderate to strong convection is observed within 270
nm SE and elsewhere within 150 nm of center. Three is forecast
to strengthen to a tropical storm on Sun morning and further
strengthen to a hurricane on Wed as it accelerates northeast
away from the area. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is analyzed from 03N to 17N along 32W and is
estimated to be progressing west at 18 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is observed south of 06N within 120 nm of the wave
axis. Expect a fresh northeast to east to southeast wind shift
along the wave axis as it continues westward across the tropical
Atlantic.

A tropical wave is analyzed from 07N to 20N along 67W, and is
estimated to be progressing west at 18 kt. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is observed from 12N to 18N within
180 nm either side of the wave axis.

A tropical wave is moving west across the SW Gulf of Mexico to
the S of 23N along 94W and is accompanied by scattered strong
convection observed across the SW gulf waters.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends SW off the coast of western Africa at
21.7N17W to 09N25W where scatterometer winds indicate a
transition to an ITCZ which continues SW to a tropical wave near
08N31W to 07N40W to 10N46W where it loses identity
in the cyclonic circulation associated with Tropical Cyclone
Beryl. The ITCZ re-forms SW of Beryl near 10N52W and extends SW
to 07N53W. Aside from the convection associated with Beryl and
the tropical waves, scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is noted within 150 nm either side of line from
12N16W to 04N39W and within 30 nm of line from 08N51W to 09N61W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

The northern extension of a tropical wave is analyzed S of 23N
along 95W. Surface highs are analyzed at 26N87W and inland
Mexico at 27N100W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
are noted across the far Sw gulf waters. across the northern and
NE coastal gulf waters. The tropical wave will pass W of the
area tonight. Thereafter, a surface trough will move westward
off the Yucatan Peninsula each evening enhancing nocturnal winds
across the southwest gulf waters through early next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

See the Tropical Waves section for details on a tropical wave in
the E Caribbean. Also, refer to the Special Features section
above for details about Tropical Cyclone Beryl. Strong to near
gale-force winds will continue off the northwest coast of
Colombia through 48 hours. Otherwise, scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is observed to the N of 17N between
68W and 72W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the Special Features Section for information on
Tropical Cyclone Beryl, Tropical Depression Three and the
Tropical waves Section for information on a tropical wave in the
E Atlantic.

Scatterometer data indicates fresh to strong winds across the
Canary Islands. For additional details, refer to the Meteo-
France High Seas Forecast at http://weather.gmdss.org/II.hmtl.

The remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters is under the
influence of a ridge anchored by a series of surface highs along
about 33N. Moderate to fresh winds are observed along the
southern periphery of the ridge.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Nelson
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