[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 071145
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
745 AM EDT Sat Jul 07 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1130 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Beryl is centered near 11.1N 49.8W at 07/0900 UTC or
720 nm ESE of The Lesser Antilles moving W-NW at 12 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 65 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Scattered moderate to
strong convection is observed within 75 nm of the center. Beryl
is forecast to weaken to a tropical storm on Sun afternoon and
continue to weaken and dissipate early Wed. See latest NHC
forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC
for more details.

Tropical Depression Three is centered near 33.2N 74.6W at
07/0900 UTC or 130 nm SSE of Cape Hatteras North Carolina moving
N-NW at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1015 mb.
Maximum sustained wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt.
Scattered moderate to strong convection is observed within 240
nm SE and 100 nm NW semicircles of center. Three is forecast to
strengthen to a tropical storm on Sun morning and further
strengthen to a hurricane on Wed as it accelerates northeast
away from the area. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is analyzed from 03N to 16N along 31W and is
estimated to be progressing west at 18 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is observed south of 07N within 120 nm of the wave
axis. Expect a fresh northeast to east to southeast wind shift
along the wave axis as it continues westward across the tropical
Atlantic.

A tropical wave is analyzed from 07N to 20N 66W, and is
estimated to be progressing west at 18 kt. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is observed from 12N to 18N within
120 nm either side of the wave axis.

A tropical wave is moving west across the Bay of Campeche and
the Isthmus of Tehuantepec and is accompanied by scattered strong
convection observed across the SW gulf within 30 nm either side
of a line from 26N97W to 19N93W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends SW off the coast of western Africa at
21N16.5W through the tropical wave 06N31W. An ITCZ develops near
05N32W and extends northwest to 07N45W where it loses identity
in the cyclonic circulation associated with Tropical Cyclone
Beryl. The ITCZ re-forms SW of Beryl near 09N52W and extends SW
to 07N59W. Aside from the convection associated with Beryl and
the tropical waves, scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is noted within 120 nm either side of line from
12N15W to 03N40W and within 30 nm of line from 09N51W to 09N61W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

The northern extension of a tropical wave is analyzed S of 23N
along 93W. A surface high is analyzed at 28N87W. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted along the coast of
Mexico W of 93W and across the the NE gulf waters. The tropical
wave will pass W of the area on Sun. Thereafter, a surface
trough will move westward off the Yucatan Peninsula each evening
enhancing nocturnal winds across the southwest gulf waters
through early next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

See the Tropical Waves section for details on a tropical wave in
the E Caribbean. Also, refer to the Special Features section
above for details about Tropical Cyclone Beryl. Strong to near
gale-force winds will continue off the northwest coast of
Colombia through 48 hours. Otherwise, scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is observed between Jamaica and Cuba
roughly N of 17N between 75W and 82W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the Special Features Section for information on
Tropical Cyclone Beryl, Tropical Depression Three and the
Tropical waves Section for information on a tropical wave in the
E Atlantic.

Scatterometer data indicates fresh to strong winds across the
Canary Islands. For additional details, refer to the Meteo-
France High Seas Forecast at http://weather.gmdss.org/II.hmtl.

The remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters is under the
influence of a ridge anchored by a series of surface highs along
about 33N. Moderate to fresh winds are observed along the
southern periphery of the ridge.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Nelson
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