[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 060521
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
121 AM EDT Fri Jul 6 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Beryl, a tiny tropical cyclone, is centered near
10.4N 44.0W at 06/0300 UTC or about 1055 nm ESE of the Lesser
Antilles, moving W 12 knots. On the forecast track, the center of
Beryl will remain east of the Lesser Antilles through Sunday.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 999mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 55 knots with gusts to 65 knots. Additional
strengthening is forecast, and Beryl could become a hurricane on
Friday. Beryl is forecast to degenerate into a strong open trough
just east of the Lesser Antilles over the weekend. Please, see
the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details. While Beryl is still expected
to dissipate as a tropical cyclone by Monday before reaching the
Lesser Antilles, there will likely be some rain and wind impacts
on those islands early next week.

A well-defined low pressure system located about midway between
the southeastern United States and Bermuda continues to produce
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. At 0000 UTC, the low
pressure is located near 30.9N 71.6W. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for some development through the end of the week
while the system moves slowly west- northwestward and then
northward off the coast of North Carolina. The low could interact
with a frontal system on Sunday, which would limit any additional
development. This system has a medium chance of becoming a
tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. Refer to the latest NHC
Tropical Weather Outlook under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATWOAT/ABNT20
KNHC for more information.

A Gale Warning is in effect across the south-central Caribbean
near the coast of Colombia. A recent scatterometer pass provides
observations of minimal gale force winds near the coast of
Colombia, particularly from 10N-14N between 73W-78W. An altimeter
pass indicates seas to near 11 ft within the area of gale force
winds. Seas are forecast to further build to 14-15 ft early this
morning. Winds will diminish below gale force by late this
morning. Near gale force winds are expected near the coast of
Colombia tonight. Please, see latest High Seas Forecast product
under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is moving across the Cabo Verde Islands. Its axis
is along 24W from 03N-17N. Convection is limited near the wave's
axis due to the presence of Saharan dust.

Another tropical wave is along 56W from 04N-16N. the wave shows up
well in the moisture product and long-term satellite imagery.
The wave is enhancing some convection over French Guiana and
Suriname.

A tropical wave is moving across the western Caribbean Sea. Its
axis is along 82W S of 20N to western Panama. A cluster of
moderate to isolated strong convection is noted just ahead of the
wave's axis covering the area from 15N-18N between 83W-86W. Part
of this convective activity is affecting NE Honduras. Similar
convection is also seen over the NW Caribbean from 19N-21N between
85W-87W. Moisture associated with this wave will reach the
Yucatan Peninsula and Belize today. This wave will move west of
the area by Sat.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through coastal sections of Senegal near
14N17W to 11N20W to 09N30W to 10N38W. The ITCZ is along 08N46W
to 06N56W. Aside from the convection associated with T.S. Beryl
and the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is seen
from 07N-10N between 12W-16W, and from 06N-11N between 29W-39W,

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Scattered showers and isolated tstms are noted over much of the
northern Gulf waters, and in the Bay of Campeche. This convective
activity is the result of a surface trough along 91W, interacting
with an upper-level low spinning near 28N92W. The trough will
move westward across the northern Gulf waters, reaching the coast
of Texas Fri night. High pressure will build over the northern
waters in the wake of the trough this weekend. Plenty of moisture
will remain in place across the northern Gulf, and the Gulf Coast
States in association with these features through Sat. A thermal
trough will move westward off the Yucatan Peninsula each evening,
and enhance nocturnal winds over the SW Gulf through Sun.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A Gale Warning has been issued near the coast of Colombia. Please,
see Special Features section for details. A tropical wave is
moving across the Caribbean Sea. Please, see the Tropical Waves
section for more information.

Recent scatterometer data provide observations of fresh to strong
winds across the east and central Caribbean, with minimal gale
force winds just off the coast of Colombia. Fresh to strong trades
are expected across much of the area S of 18N between 70W and 83W
through Sat. Winds will reach near gale force each night near the
coast of Colombia through Sun night. Winds and seas are forecast
to gradually increase E of the Leeward Islands by Sun.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details about Tropical
Storm Beryl. Two tropical waves are between the coast of west
Africa and the Lesser Antilles. Please, see the Tropical Waves
section for more information. A well-defined low pressure system
is located about midway between the southeastern United States
and Bermuda. Please, see Special Features section for details.
As this low pressure shifts NW of the area today, the Atlantic
ridge will build back across the waters E of Florida and the
Bahamas.

Scatterometer data show fresh to strong winds across the Canary
Islands and regional waters, with near gale force winds between
islands. For more details, refer to the Meteo-France High Seas
Forecast. The link to their Met Area home page is
http://weather.gmdss.org/II.hmtl.

The remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters is under the
influence of a ridge anchored by a 1030 mb high pressure located
SW of the Azores near 35N32W. Moderate to fresh winds are around
the southern periphery of the ridge.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
GR
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