[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 060002
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
802 PM EDT Thu Jul 5 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Depression TWO was upgraded to Tropical Storm Beryl at
05/2100 UTC. At this time, Beryl is centered near 10.3N 42.8W
moving W 14 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004
mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 45 knots with gusts to
55 knots. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Beryl could
become a hurricane by Friday or Saturday. Beryl is forecast to
degenerate into an open trough just east of the Lesser Antilles
over the weekend. Please see the latest NHC forecast/advisory
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details.
Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are
within 90 nm of the center in the SW semicircle.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is moving across the Cabo Verde Islands. Its axis
is along 23W from 03N-17N. Scattered moderate convection is where
the wave meets the monsoon trough.

Another tropical wave is along 55W from 04N-16N. TPW moisture and
long-term satellite imagery mark the tropical wave. The wave is
enhancing convection over French Guiana and Suriname.

A tropical wave is moving across the Caribbean Sea. Its axis is
along 81W S of 20N. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is noted ahead of the wave's axis from 14N-18N between
81W-85W. This wave will will move west of the area by Sat.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through coastal sections of Senegal near
14N17W, to 09N22W and 09N33W. The ITCZ is along 06N44W 05N51W.
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are
within 210 nm on either side of 10N14W 09N24W 08N36W 05N52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Scattered showers and tstms are noted across the northern Gulf
waters and the SW Gulf. This convective activity is the result of
a surface trough, interacting with an upper-level trough that
extends from the NE Gulf to the central Bay of Campeche.
The surface trough is now along 87W N of 25N. another surface
trough is analyzed over the Bay of Campeche. A recent ASCAT pass
shows this latter trough axis along 90W. The first trough will
move westward across the northern Gulf waters, reaching the Texas
coast Fri night. Plenty of moisture will remain in place across
the northern Gulf, and the Gulf Coast States in association with
these features trough through Fri. A thermal trough will move
westward off the Yucatan Peninsula each evening, and enhance
nocturnal winds over the SW Gulf through Sun.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is moving across the Caribbean Sea. Please, see
the TROPICAL WAVES section for details.

Recent scatterometer data provide observations of fresh to strong
winds across the east and central Caribbean, with near gale force
winds just off the coast of Colombia. Fresh to strong trades are
expected across much of the area S of 18N and E of 83W through at
least Fri. Winds will reach near gale force near the coast of
Colombia, mainly at night, through Sun night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details about Tropical
Storm Beryl.

A well-defined low pressure system located about midway between
the southeastern United States and Bermuda continues to produce
disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  However, environmental
conditions appear conducive for some development through the end
of the week while the system moves slowly west-northwestward and
then northward off the coast of North Carolina.  The low could
interact with a frontal system on Sunday, which would limit any
additional development.

The remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters is under the
influence of a ridge anchored by a 1029 mb high pressure located W
of the Azores near 35N32W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
GR
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net