[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 041209
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 AM EDT Wed Jul 4 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1130 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 32W/34W, from 16N
southward. A 1010 mb low pressure center is along the wave near
10N. Widely scattered to scattered moderate and isolated strong
rainshowers cover the area that extends from 12N southward
between 30W and 40W.

An eastern Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 62W/63W from 18N
southward. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong rainshowers cover the area that extends from land to 17N
between 65W and 70W.

A western Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 82W/83W from 23N
in Cuba southward. Broad cyclonic wind flow exists at 500 mb and
700 mb, from 20N southward between 80W and Central America.
Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate to strong
rainshowers cover the area that extends from 20N southward
between 80W and 86W, including in coastal areas of Honduras and
Nicaragua.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Guinea-
Bissau near 12N16W to 10N34W and 05N40W. The ITCZ continues from
05N40W to 05N47W, and 07N58W at the coast of Guyana.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
rainshowers from 06N to 12N between 11W and 23W, elsewhere from
12N southward between 26W and 50W, and from 11N southward
between 50W and 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A trough extends from a 1014 mb low centered in southern
Louisiana near 30N92W to 28N89W to 25N90W. Widespread showers
with embedded tstms are noted N of 26N and W of the trough to
about 94W. Lightning density indicates frequent lightning with
much of the observed convection, more concentrated now over the
upper Texas coast. This convective low pressure system will
continue to enhance showers and thunderstorms system across the
northern Gulf states from southern Mississippi to SE Texas
today.

Widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms from a low
centered near 28N93W will slowly move westward into NE Texas
later today. A weak ridge over the remainder of the Gulf will
persist through Sat night. A surface trough will emerge off the
Yucatan Peninsula each evening, and enhance nocturnal winds over
the SW Gulf through Sun.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the TROPICAL WAVES section for information about the
two tropical waves that are in the area.

The 82W/83W tropical wave will continue moving westward into
Central America through Thu. The 62W/63W tropical wave will
reach the western Caribbean on Fri. Winds will approach gale
force near the coast of Colombia, mainly at night, tonight
through Fri night. A vigorous tropical wave in the eastern
Atlantic will reach the tropical N Atlantic around Sat night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A Bahamas/Florida coastal waters surface trough is along 78W/79W
from 24N to 32N. Scattered showers and isolated tstms are ahead
of the trough, that is forecast to move westward into Florida
through tonight.

An area of cloudiness and showers remains a few hundred miles
southeast of Bermuda. Although this disturbance is currently
disorganized, environmental conditions could become more
conducive for a low pressure system to form by late this week in
the area southwest of Bermuda. The system is then forecast to
move generally northward over the weekend and begin interacting
with a frontal system on Sunday, which would limit any
additional development.

Surface high pressure of 1032 mb located W of the Azores near
37N39W extends a ridge across the remainder of the central and
eastern Atlantic forecast waters. Moderate to fresh trade winds
are noted along the southern periphery of the ridge, which
reaches the NE Caribbean.

The current Bahamas surface trough will move westward into
Florida through tonight. A second trough will develop near
Bermuda tonight, then shift NW of the area by Fri. High pressure
will build across the region through the weekend. Winds N of
Hispaniola will pulse to strong each afternoon and evening the
remainder of the week.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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