[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 311203
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
703 AM EST Wed Jan 31 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A slightly tighter pressure gradient
between a strong SE U.S.A. surface ridge, and comparatively lower
surface pressures in northern South America will support minimal
gale-force winds, to be pulsing at night near the coast of
Colombia through early Friday. The sea heights will range from
10 feet to 14 feet during that period. Please read the latest NHC
High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC
for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Liberia
near 06N11W to 05N15W. The ITCZ continues from 05N15W to 01N31W,
crossing the Equator along 47W, to 01S51W in Brazil.
Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers
are from 05N southward between 16W and 38W. rainshowers are
possible elsewhere from 10N southward from 60W eastward.

...DISCUSSION...

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends from a 1029 mb southern Georgia high
pressure center, into the north central Gulf of Mexico, into the
west central Gulf waters, to the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of
southern Mexico. Storm-force winds are present in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec, that is along the eastern Pacific Ocean coast of
Mexico.

A surface ridge along 30N will prevail across the basin through
Thursday. A cold front will reach the northern Gulf of Mexico on
Friday, and then stall along 26N on Saturday.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details regarding
gale-force wind conditions near the coast of Colombia.

A stationary front passes through 25N69W in the Atlantic Ocean,
to SE Cuba near 21N76W. The stationary front is dissipating from
21N76W to 19N81W, and into the Gulf of Honduras. Precipitation:
isolated moderate rainshowers are from 14N northward from 79W
westward, including in the coastal plains of north central
Honduras.

Periods of minimal gale force winds are expected near
the coast of Colombia each night through early Friday.
A stationary front from Cuba to Honduras will drift SE today,
and then dissipate on Thursday. Fresh to strong N-NE winds
and building seas are expected NW of the front this morning.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough passes through Bermuda, to 30N66W, toward
the NW Bahamas. This trough supports a cold front that passes
through 32N63W to 28N65W to 25N69W. The front is stationary from
25N69W to SE Cuba near 21N76W. The stationary front is dissipating
from 21N76W to 19N81W, and into the Gulf of Honduras.
Precipitation: isolated moderate rainshowers are within 60 nm on
either side of the line that passes through 32N58W to 26N64W.
rainshowers are possible elsewhere within 120 nm on either side of
26N64W 24N70W, to Cuba near 21N78W.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 18N
northward between 40W and 53W. A 1012 mb low pressure center is
near 23N52W. One surface trough extends from the low pressure
center to 21N53W and 21N56W. A second surface trough is along
22N45W 19N46W 16N51W 14N54W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to
strong rainshowers are from 24N to 28N between 40W and 43W.
rainshowers are possible elsewhere from 20N northward between 40W
and 55W, and within 60 nm to 120 nm on either side of 20N46W
16N52W 12N60W.

A surface ridge is along 30W, from 10N northward.

The current stationary front will drift SE through tonight. Fresh
to strong northerly winds W of the front will diminish tonight
and on Thursday. Another cold front will move off northern Florida
on Friday.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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