[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 291744
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1244 PM EST Mon Jan 29 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1730 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Ocean Gale Warnings: A 1011 mb low pressure center is
near 31N47W. A cold front curves away from the low center, to
32N40W, 26N40W, 20N46W, and to 18N59W. Expect gale-force winds N
of 30N between 47W and 49W, and sea heights ranging from 15 feet
to 20 feet. A surface ridge passes through 32N60W, to 27N65W, and
to Hispaniola. The low pressure center is forecast to drift south
of 30N this morning, and to continue moving southward, to 25N49W
by Tuesday morning. The gale- force winds are forecast to diminish
to less than gale- force late today as the low pressure center
weakens. Please read the latest NHC High Seas Forecast under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details about
this event.

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The combination of a 32N60W-27N65W-
Hispaniola surface ridge, and lower pressure in South America, is
supporting minimal gale-force wind speeds near the coast of
Colombia, with seas in the 12 to 15 feet range. Expect winds to
reach gale-force primarily late at night and into the early
morning hours through Tuesday, and possibly well into next week.
Please read the latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details about this event.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning off Veracruz, Mexico : A cold front
reaches from FLorida near 29N82W, to the NW corner of the Yucatan
Peninsula, to the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico.
Colder and drier air behind the front will support winds to gale-
force off the coast of Veracruz, starting tonight and ending on
Tuesday after sunrise, to the south of 21N and to the west of
95W, with seas building to 10 to 13 feet. The wind speeds and sea
heights will diminish to less than gale-force during the rest of
the day on Tuesday, as high pressure builds in the wake of the
front. Please read the latest NHC High Seas Forecast under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details about
this event.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the southern coastal sections
of Sierra Leone near 07N12W, to 06N14W. The ITCZ continues from
06N14W, to the Equator along 38W, to 01S41W. Precipitation:
isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from 07N
southward from 49W eastward. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere
from 10N southward from 60W eastward.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details in reference
to an upcoming gale-force wind event in the SW Gulf of Mexico.

A surface ridge passes through the Deep South of Texas, to the
coast of Mexico, to the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow, from a trough, covers the Gulf of
Mexico from 28N northward from 90W eastward. Precipitation:
isolated moderate rainshowers are from 25N southward, with the
cold front.

The current cold front will move SE of the area this evening.
Minimal gale-force winds are expected behind the front near
Veracruz, Mexico this afternoon and tonight. Winds and seas are
forecast to diminish from W to E across the Gulf waters on Tuesday.
A ridge will dominate the region through Thursday. The next cold
front is forecast to enter the northern Gulf waters on Friday.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details regarding
the gale-force wind conditions near the coast of Colombia.

The southern part of a cold front passes through Florida near
29N82W, to the NW corner of the Yucatan Peninsula. Precipitation:
isolated moderate rainshowers are to the NW of the line that
extends from SE Cuba to 16N85W along the coast of Honduras.

The main driver through the short term will continue to be the
strong high pressure north of the area, supporting the gale winds
off Colombia, but also fresh to strong trade winds through much
of the eastern and central Caribbean, including the Windward
Passage. Buoy and altimeter data were showing sea heights ranging
from 8 feet to 12 feet in the area of strong winds. The gradient
will loosen across the region as the high pressure shifts eastward
ahead of the cold front that is sweeping across the Gulf of
Mexico today, and which will move into the NW Caribbean Sea tonight.
The front will stall from roughly the Windward Passage to central
Honduras by mid week, bringing fresh to occasionally strong
northerly winds to the northwest Caribbean and the lee of Cuba.
High pressure building north of the area in the wake of the front
will support fresh to strong trade winds once again in much of
the central and eastern Caribbean Sea and tropical Atlantic Ocean
west of 55W late in the week.

24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that
ended at 29/1200 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE
AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 0.43 in San
Juan in Puerto Rico, 0.15 in Montego Bay in Jamaica, 0.07 in St.
Thomas in the U.S. Virgin Islands, 0.02 in Curacao, and 0.01 in
Trinidad.

Strong to minimal gale force winds are expected near the coast of
Colombia, primarily late at night and into the early morning
hours during the forecast period. The next cold front will reach
the NW Caribbean this evening, then reach from eastern Cuba to the
Gulf of Honduras by Tue evening, where it will remain nearly
stationary on Wed. Fresh to strong N-NE winds and building seas
are expected NW of the front.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about gale-
force wind conditions in the western Atlantic Ocean, to the south
of 22N, and developing gale-force wind conditions in the central
Atlantic Ocean.

A cold front extends from a 1010 mb low pressure center, that is
near 33N78W, to Florida near 29N82W, and into the Gulf of Mexico.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong are
from 27N northward between 72W and 80W.

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 31N47W in the
central Atlantic Ocean. A 1011 mb low pressure center is near
31N47W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong
rainshowers from 25N northward between 36W and 42W. isolated
moderate rainshowers are from 27N northward between 45W and 50W.
rainshowers are possible elsewhere from 20N to 30N between 40W and
50W.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from 14N
northward from 30W eastward. An upper level cyclonic circulation
center is near 30N12W off the coast of Morocco. A surface ridge
passes through 32N27W, to 25N28W, to 10N28W, about 620 nm to the
west of Africa. A 1016 mb low pressure center is near 30N12W, off
the coast of Morocco. The Meteo-France forecast consists of strong
breeze-to-near gale winds for the area of MADEIRA; moderate-to-
fresh winds, and at times strong for IRVING and CASABLANCA. The
1016 mb low pressure center is forecast to drift southward during
the next 24 hours.

A strong surface ridge, that extends from the central Atlantic
Ocean southwestward, continues to dominate the forecast region. A
deepening surface low passing near Cape Hatteras will drag a cold
front across the NW waters today. The front will reach from near
31N73W SW across the NW Bahamas to the Straits of Florida tonight,
from 31N64W to eastern Cuba by Tuesday night, and from 23N55W to
the entrance of the Windward Passage by Wednesday night, while
gradually weakening. High pressure in the wake of the front will
dominate the region through Thursday. Another cold front is
forecast to arrive in the north waters on Friday.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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