[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 250604
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
104 AM EST Thu Jan 25 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The combination of high pressure in
the central Atlantic Ocean, and lower surface pressures in northern
Colombia will bring pulses of strong-to-minimal gale force NE to
E winds along and near the coast of Colombia during the overnight
hours, from today through Friday, and possibly for more time,
into the upcoming weekend. The sea heights are expected to be in
the range of 9 feet to 14 feet with the winds. Please read the
latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: COLD FRONT FROM 25N80W TO 23N86W,
THEN STATIONARY TO 20.5N95W TO 18N93W. S OF 21N W OF FRONT NW
WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 14 FT. The surface pressure gradient
in the far SW Gulf along the coast of Mexico in the vicinity of
Veracruz has become tighter, as the surface ridge that extends
from strong high pressure centered in eastern Texas presses
southward along eastern Mexico and toward the SW Gulf of Mexico.
the tight pressure gradient from the building ridge will maintain
the northerly gale wind conditions into Thursday, before
diminishing to N-to-NE fresh winds. Please read the the latest
NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Liberia
near 05N10W to 04N13W. The ITCZ continues from 04N13W, to 01N23W,
and to the Equator along 35W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to
locally strong rainshowers are from 06N southward from 52W
eastward.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about the
cold front/stationary front, and the associated gale-force
northerly winds.

A surface ridge extends from a 1031 mb Texas 31N97W mb high
pressure center, through the Deep South of Texas, to the Isthmus
of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico.

A surface trough is in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico, from
18N93W to 21N95W.

Precipitation: isolated moderate rainshowers are spread across the
Gulf of Mexico, in areas of broken low level clouds.

A stationary front from 25N80W to 21N93W will dissipate through
Thursday night. A trough will meander across the SW Gulf waters
from 22N96W to 18N93W through Saturday. The trough will lift N as
a warm front on Saturday night, with a surface low developing
along the front near 27N92W. The low will move NE on Sunday,
passing across the Florida Big Bend on Sunday night, and drag a
cold front across the Eastern Gulf waters by sunrise on Monday.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about the
gale-force winds for the area that is off the coast of Colombia.

Precipitation: Broken low level clouds and possible rainshowers
are from 17N to 25N between 64W and 68W, from the waters that are
just to the south of Puerto Rico into the Atlantic Ocean. Isolated
moderate rainshowers are from 12N northward from 80W westward.
Rainshowers are possible elsewhere from 80W eastward, in areas of
broken low level clouds.

Strong to minimal gale force trade winds are forecast along the
the NW coast of Colombia during the overnight hours through Monday
night. A slowly-moving cold front will stall on Thursday, from
Central Cuba to Belize and gradually dissipate through Friday.
Strengthening high pressure in the wake of the front will produce
fresh to locally strong NE winds across the NW Caribbean by late
Thursday, with strong to near gale force NE flow spreading E
across the NE Caribbean on Friday night through Saturday.
Conditions will improve across the Caribbean Sea from the NW
beginning late Saturday night. Moderate to fresh trades will
continue across the tropical Atlantic Ocean waters E of the
Windwards through Friday night, with strong NE winds forecast from
Saturday through Sunday night.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 32N68W, and southwestward to 26N77W.
The front becomes stationary at 26N77W, and it continues from the
NW Bahamas, through the Straits of Florida, to 21N93W in the SW
corner of the Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation:
isolated moderate rainshowers are to the NW of the line that
passes through 32N62W to 26N70W to 20N70W, in the Atlantic Ocean,
and across much of the Gulf of Mexico.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 13N
to 30N between 38W and 50W, with an upper level trough. One
surface trough is along 49W/50W from 18N to 26N. A second surface
trough is along 62W/63W from 23N to 31N. Precipitation:
isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from 18N to
25N between 44W and 50W.

A cold front extends SW from 31N70W to the NW Bahamas, and then it
becomes stationary across the Straits of Florida. The cold front
segment will continue SE, stalling from 24N65W to NW Cuba on
Friday evening, with remnants of the front gradually dissipating
between 20N and 23N through Saturday night. The W part of the front
will lift N as a warm front across the Straits of Florida on
Sunday night. The western part of the front will be ahead of a
surface low, that is racing NE off the NE Florida coast and
dragging a cold front E across the Straits of Florida on Monday,
reaching the Central Bahamas late Monday night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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