[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 240004
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
704 PM EST Tue Jan 23 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: The combination of high pressure in the
central Atlantic and lower pressures over northern Colombia
will continue to bring pulses of strong to minimal gale force
NE to E winds along and near the coast of Colombia during the
overnight hours through Thu night and possibly beyond into the
upcoming weekend. Seas are expected to be in the 9-14 ft range
with these winds. Please read the latest NHC High Seas Forecast
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: COLD FRONT FROM 29N83W TO 22N90W
THEN STATIONARY TO 21N96W TO 18N95W. S OF 21N W OF FRONT NW WINDS
25 TO 35 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 9 FT. The latest model guidance
indicates that these gale wind conditions will persist longer than
previously advertised, and will now linger into early Thu
morning. During tonight, the cold front is forecast to reach from
the Straits of Florida to across the Yucatan Peninsula, with the
stationary portion transitioning back to a cold front across the
southern Bay of Campeche. The cold front will weaken slowly as it
moves across the SE Gulf Wed, and exiting the area by late on Wed.
Please read the the latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from Africa near 06N09W to
03N19W. The ITCZ continues WSW from 03N19W to 01S41W. Scattered
moderate convection is N of the ITCZ within 30 nm either side of a
line from 02N31W to 03N39W. Similar activity is within 60 nm S of
the ITCZ between 36W-39W.

...DISCUSSION...

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about the
cold front and the gale-force winds that are associated with it.

The cold front passes through NE Florida, into the SE part of the
Gulf of Mexico, into the south central sections, and into the SW
corner of the area. The front will reach from SW Florida to the
Bay of Campeche tonight, then move slowly across the SE Gulf
exiting the area by late Wed. Minimal gale conditions are forecast
over the SW Gulf waters near Veracruz, Mexico this afternoon
through Thu. Strengthening high pressure in the wake of the front
will bring increasing winds and building seas across much of the
Gulf waters Wed evening into Thu, with these conditions shifting
across the E Gulf on Fri and Sat.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about the
gale-force winds for the area that is off the coast of Colombia.

Broad upper level ridging is present across the western half of
the basin, while broad inverted troughing is noted elsewhere.
Upper level winds and satellite winds reveal a diffluent flow
pattern over the SW Caribbean. This appears to support scattered
moderate convection that is occurring from 10N to 13N W of 81W to
inland southern Nicaragua and far northern Costa Rica. This
activity is being sustained further by low-level speed convergence
present there. Patches of low-level moisture advecting westward
in the easterly flow are seen over the eastern Caribbean waters,
and also approaching the northern Windward Islands. Scattered
showers with gusty winds are possible with this moisture.

Strong to minimal gale force trade winds are forecast
along the the NW coast of Colombia during the overnight and early
morning hours through Sun. A cold front currently located over
the Gulf of Mexico will move slowly SE entering the NW Caribbean
by late Wed, then stall and gradually dissipate from Central Cuba
to Northern Belize on Thu. Strengthening high pressure in the wake
of the front will produce fresh to strong NE-E winds across the
Caribbean, including the Atlantic passages Thu evening through
Sat. Moderate to fresh trades will continue across the tropical
Atlc waters E of the Windwards through Fri, with fresh to strong
NE winds forecast on Fri night through Sat night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

One surface trough is along 40W/41W from 24N to 31N.

A second surface trough is along 60W/61W from 27N to 31N.

A cold front moving off the NE Florida coast this
afternoon, will reach a position from 31N70W to the Straits of
Florida late Wed, from 31N65W to Central Cuba late Thu, from
24N65W to along the coast of central Cuba late Fri, then stall E
to W along 22N Fri night through Sat night while dissipating.
Strengthening high pressure in the wake of this front will produce
strong to near gale force NE-E winds W of the front Thu through
Sat. The strongest winds are expected S of 27N Fri and Sat with
building seas of 12-14 ft E of the Bahamas.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
mt
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