[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 131717
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1217 PM EST Sat Jan 13 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...THE MONSOON TROUGH/THE ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 05N03W to
03N23W. The ITCZ continues from 03N23W to 02N40W to the Equator at
51W. Scattered moderate convection is from 00N-03N between 35W-
43W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Strong high pressure of 1046 mb centered over the northern Plains
of U.S. extends a ridge southward across the central and southern
Plains into the Gulf region. This system is producing moderate to
fresh northerly winds, and seas of up to 9-10 ft based on recent
altimeter passes and buoy observations. Abundant cold air
stratocumulus clouds are noted mainly over the eastern half of the
Gulf due to the advection of cold air over relatively warm
waters. Reinforcing cold air will move through the eastern Gulf
today behind a secondary front currently crossing north-central
Florida. This front is forecast to reach south Florida later today
into this evening bringing another round of cold temperatures.
High pres will continue to prevail over the area through early
Mon, then begin to slide eastward on Tue nigh as the next cold
front moves over the NW gulf waters. Fresh northerly winds will
persit across the eastern Gulf tonight and Sunday, with gentle to
moderate NE-E winds elsewhere.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

As of 1500 UTC, a cold front extends from central Cuba to the Gulf
of Honduras followed by fresh to locally strong northerly winds.
Patches of low level clouds with embedded showers are noted along
the frontal boundary. The front will move slowly southeastward
and become stationary from eastern Cuba to Costa Rica tonight.
Fresh to locally strong notherly winds are expected behind the
front through tonight, increasing to near gale force along the
coast of Nicaragua on Sun. A surface trough is analyzed over the
central Caribbean, and extends from the westernmost tip of
Jamaica to near 11N78W. Scattered showers and isolated tstms are
noted over the central and SW Caribbean in association with this
trough. The most recent scatterometer pass showed mainly fresh
winds near the coast of Colombia, but strong winds are expected to
pulse in this area each night through the period. Fresh to locally
strong trades are over the eastern Caribbean. Large long-period
NE swell will affect the waters E of the Lesser Antilles through
Tue.

...HISPANIOLA...

Isolated to scattered passing showers are expected across the
island today under the influence of a ridge. Moisture will
continue to be limited on Sunday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

As of 1500 UTC, a cold front extends from 31N74W across the central
Bahamas and central Cuba. Scattered showers and isolated tstms are
along the frontal boundary. Fresh to locally strong southerly winds
are noted N of 29N, and ahead of the front to about 71W. A secondary
front stretches from 31N78W to north-central Florida. Fresh to
strong SW-W winds are blowing between fronts. The main front will
become stationary from 31N73W to the central Bahamas and to
eastern Cuba on Sun while the secondary front will merge with the
main front tonight. A large area of cloudiness with embedded
showers and tstms is over the central Atlantic, and covers mainly
the waters from 19N-23N between 48W-57W. This convective activity
is related to an upper-level low. A recent ASCAT pass indicates
that a surface trough has developed in association with this low,
and roughly extends from 24N50W to 19N52W. This trough coincides
with a concentrated area of showers and tstms. The pressure
gradient between this trough and strong high pressure to the N is
producing strong to near gale force easterly winds from 23N-28N
between 46W-52W. As previously mentioned, a strong high pressure
of 1041 mb located N of the area near 37.5N47W dominates the
central and eastern Atlantic Ocean. This system will shift
eastward over the next 24 hours. Another cold front is just south
of the Canary Islands.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
GR
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