[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 090600
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
105 AM EST Tue Jan 9 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 06N10W
to 04N16W. The ITCZ continues from 04N16W to 03N30W to 01N41W.
Scattered moderate rain showers are within 60 nm north of the
ITCZ between 20W and 40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1012 mb surface low is located over SE Louisiana near 30N90W.
A cold front extends southward from a triple point at 31N88W to
26N89W to 20N97W. A surface trough is just ahead of the front
from 31N87W to 26N87W. Water vapor imagery shows an upper low
digging into the north-central Gulf of Mexico. Diffluent wind
flow aloft is enhancing multi-layer cloudiness and embedded
showers north of 25N and east of 88W.

The low and front will weaken as they continue moving SE today.
The front will gradually becoming a remnant trough by early
Wednesday. The trough will also dissipate, with return flow
setting up and becoming dominant across the basin Wednesday and
Thursday. The next cold front will reach the NW part of the Gulf
of Mexico on Thursday afternoon and move rapidly across the area
through the end of the week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weakening surface trough reaches from the Windward Passage to
SW of Jamaica to 17N81W. A second surface trough extends SSW of
Haiti to 14N77W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong showers
are from 17N to 20N between 74W and 80W, including Haiti and
Jamaica. Isolated showers are elsewhere across the basin.

A cold front should move SE of the Yucatan Channel on Friday
with winds becoming fresh to strong NW. Fresh to strong winds
north of 18N between the Windward Passage and 83W will diminish
tonight. High pressure centered northeast of the area will slide
eastward and weaken through Friday. This will allow winds and
seas to improve today and tonight across the north central and
NW Caribbean Sea.

...HISPANIOLA...

The moisture from the dissipating stationary front and surface
trough along with a second surface trough to the south will
support showers and isolated thunderstorms across the island
today. High pressure to the north will support NE 20 to 25 kt
winds, with 8-12 ft seas in the area including in the approach
to the Windward Passage, during the next 24 hours or so.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extending from 31N51W to the Windward Passage
is drifting west and weakening. Widely scattered showers are
within 240 nm of the frontal boundary.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the eastern and
central Atlantic Ocean north of 10N. A high pressure ridge is
along 30N, anchored by highs centered near 30N47W and 30N37W.

Diffluent wind flow aloft is enhancing multi-layer cloudiness
and embedded showers from 12N to 21N between 34W and 45W.

During the next 24 hours, 20 to 25 knots NE winds and 8 to 11 ft
seas are expected in an area south of 10N between 40W and 55W.
Winds will diminish as the pressure gradient begins to weaken.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Mundell
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