[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 090000
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
705 PM EST Mon Jan 8 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 06N11W
to 03N24W. The ITCZ continues from 03N24W to 01N37W. Isolated
moderate rain showers are south of 06N east of 40W.

Cyclonic wind flow associated with an upper level cyclone center
near 14N48W covers the Atlantic Ocean from 07N to 24N between
34W and 55W. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and isolated
moderate rain showers are from 10N to 24N between 30W and 50W,
and elsewhere south of 10N between 30W and 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

The water vapor imagery shows a trough digging through the
western part of the Gulf of Mexico. This trough is supporting a
cold front that passes from a 1012 low in SE Louisiana to NE
Mexico. A surface trough just ahead of the front extends from
the low to 28N88W to 27N91W. Widely scattered moderate isolated
strong rain showers are in the Gulf of Mexico between Florida
and 94W, and in the Atlantic Ocean from 26N northward from 74W
westward.

The low and front will weaken as they continue SE into Tuesday
morning. The front will drift S through Tuesday night, while
gradually becoming a remnant trough into early Wednesday. The
trough will drift W through Wednesday night while dissipating,
with return flow then dominating through early Thursday. The
next cold front may enter the NW corner of the Gulf of Mexico
on Thursday afternoon, moving rapidly across the area through
the end of the week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough reaches from the Windward Passage to west of
Jamaica to 15N81W, then southward to 10N81W. A second surface
trough extends SSW of Haiti to 13N76W. Scattered strong showers
are from 17N to 19N between Haiti and Jamaica. Isolated moderate
showers are elsewhere to the NW of a line that runs from the
Mona Passage to 09N82W at the coast of western Panama.

High pres in the central Atlantic Ocean will build westward in
the wake of the current surface trough. A weak cold front may
move SE of the Yucatan Channel on Friday with a wind shift.
Fresh to strong winds north of 18N between the Windward Passage
and 83W will diminish tonight. The current high pressure center,
that is to north of the area, will be sliding eastward and
weakening. This shift will allow for winds and seas to improve
later this afternoon/tonight across the north central and NW
Caribbean Sea.

...HISPANIOLA...

The moisture from the dissipating stationary front/surface
trough, and a second surface trough will support showers and
isolated thunderstorms across the island through tonight. High
pressure to the north will support NE 20 to 25 kt winds, with 8-
12 ft seas in the area including in the approach to the Windward
Passage, during the next 24 hours or so.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends from 31N48W to the Windward Passage.
Widely scattered moderate and isolated strong showers are within
180 nm NW of the frontal boundary, and from 20N to 24N between
60W and 77W.

Surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the Atlantic Ocean from 10N
northward to the stationary front eastward. A 1028 mb high
pressure center is near 30N37W.

The forecast for the next 24 hours consists of NE winds 20 to 25
knots, and sea heights ranging from 8 to 12 feet in an area that
is bounded by the points from 22N77W to 29N60W to 29N60W to
20N73W to 22N77W. Winds will diminish as the pressure gradient
begins to weaken.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Mundell
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