[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 080520
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1220 AM EST Mon Jan 8 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0400 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Atlantic Gale Warning...

Strong high pressure of 1037 mb over the mid U.S. Atlantic coast
continues to support near gale to gale-force northeast winds
south of 24N and west of a stationary front to 75W that currently
extends from 26N60W to 20N73W. The gale includes the Windward
Passage. Seas of 10-15 ft are expected within the area of gale-
force winds. Fresh to strong NE winds are also affecting the
remainder of the waters between the Bahamas and Cuba, the Straits
of Florida, and W Atlantic waters S of 28N and W of the front,
with seas up to 11 ft outside the Bahamas. Winds will drop just
below gale force within the next couple of hours. Conditions
across the entire region will continue to improve through Mon
night as the high shifts east and weakens and the front
dissipates. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...Caribbean Gale Warning...

The aforementioned high pressure is also currently bringing
gale-force winds over the Windward Passage and approaches to the
passage north of 18N and E of 76W. Seas are likely peaking around
10-13 ft under these winds. Winds will drop just below gale force
over the next couple of hours, and will continue to improve
through Mon night. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean from the Africa
coast near 10N15W and continues to 04N20W. The Intertropical
Convergence Zone extends from 04N20W to the equator near 34W to
the South America Coast near 01S45W. Isolated moderate convection
is within 150 nm of the ITCZ axis.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A ridge dominates the basin anchored by a strong high pressure of
1037 mb located near 36N77W. The pressure gradient between the
high pressure to the north and lower pressures over the Caribbean
and Mexico support fresh to strong easterly winds over the
Straits of Florida and eastern two-thirds of the Gulf basin.
Mainly moderate to fresh east to southeast winds prevail
elsewhere. Expect for the next cold front to emerge off the Texas
and Louisiana coasts later today with an accompanying low pressure
area emerging over the north central Gulf tonight. Fresh
northerly winds and building seas of 5-6 ft are expected west of
the low and cold front. The front, low, and associated winds will
weaken on Tuesday. A stronger cold front will cross the western
Gulf on Thursday night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front extends across the Windward Passage near 20N73W
to 18N80W and is beginning to transition to a frontal trough to
10N81W. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are within 180 nm of
the front. Observations continue to indicate near gale to gale-
force winds across the Windward Passage and approaches. Please see
the special features section for more details. Strong to near-
gale force winds cover the Lee of Cuba, including the Cayman
Islands, with seas as high as 14 ft. Fresh to locally strong winds
are over the south- central Caribbean near the coast of Colombia.
Fresh winds are occurring elsewhere W of the front, and over the
Lesser Antilles. The entire stationary front will gradually weaken
and transition to a frontal trough through today, as the high
pressure north of the area slides eastward and begins to weaken.
This shift will allow for winds and seas to improve later today
across the north central and NW Caribbean.

...HISPANIOLA...

A stationary front is through the Windward Passage while a
surface trough is crossing the island. The moisture from these two
features will support showers and thunderstorms over the island
through at least tonight. High pressure to the north will support
20 to 30 kt NE winds over the northern coast of Haiti through
this morning.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front enters the area of discussion near 31N53W and
extends to 26N60W, where it transitions to a stationary front to
the Windward Passage near 20N73W. Scattered moderate convection
is noted within 500 nm west of the cold front, and within 360 nm W
of the stationary front. The pressure gradient between strong high
pressure currently over the mid Atlantic shore of the United
States and the stationary front supports near gale to gale-force
winds over an area south of 24N and west of the front to about
75W. Please see the special features section for more details. An
upper low centered over the tropical central Atlantic is
supporting scattered thunderstorms from 11N to 18N between 43W and
50W. Broad high pressure of 1028 mb centered near 30N36W
dominates the remainder of the central and eastern Atlantic
discussion waters. Fresh trade winds can be found south of 24N W
of 25W to 60W, as well as fresh northerly winds N of the Cabo
Verde Islands, supporting seas of 8 to 13 ft.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Latto
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net