[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 060609
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
108 AM EST Sat Jan 6 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A Caribbean Gale Warning has been issued for the NW Caribbean from
N of 18N between 77W-81W starting Sun 07/0600 UTC lasting 12
hours. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

Another Atlantic Gale Warning has been issued for an area N of
Hispaniola and the Windward Passage starting Mon 08/0000 UTC
lasting 06 hours. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 06N11W to
06N20W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
06N20W to 01N40W to the South American coast near 01S46W.
Scattered moderate convection is from 03N-06N between 22W-29W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A ridge dominates the entire Gulf of Mexico anchored by a 1041 mb
high pressure located over Wisconson near 48N94W. Patches of
broken cold air stratocumulus clouds remain over portions of the
Gulf. Overcast low clouds are banked up along the E slopes of the
Sierra Madre mountains, and the far W Gulf. 10-15 kt NE-E surface
winds prevail. In the upper levels, a very large trough is over the
Gulf with axis from the Florida Panhandle to the Bay of Campeche.
Upper level moisture and scattered high clouds are over Florida
and the E Gulf E of 90W. Strong subsidence is W of 90W. Expect
cold air advection to end over the Gulf, but persist over Florida.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front extends from Haiti near 20N70W to 16N78W to the
SW Caribbean near 10N80W. 15-25 kt northerly winds are W of the
front. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is over
the central Caribbean from 13N-18N between 76W-80W. In the upper
levels, the base of a large trough is over the far NW Caribbean.
An upper level high centered over the Windward Islands near 12N66W
is producing ridging over the remainder of the Caribbean Sea.
Expect the stationary front to linger through Sunday, and
dissipate Monday. A gale warning has been issued for the NW
Caribbean. See above.

...HISPANIOLA...

Cloudiness with embedded showers and isolated tstms will persist
across the island tonight and Saturday as a frontal boundary
remains stationary across Hispaniola. There is a risk of heavy
rain leading to flash floods and mudslides. Fresh to strong NE
winds are expected through the Windward Passage and northern coast
exposures through Sunday night. These winds will briefly reach
gale force on Sunday. See Above.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The tail end of a stationary front is over the W Atlantic from
31N68W to 30N73W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the front. A
cold front is over the central Atlantic from 31N57W to 23N66W. A
stationary front continues to Hispaniola near 20N70W. Scattered
moderate convection is within 90 nm of these fronts. The central
and eastern Atlantic is under the influence of a surface ridge
anchored by a 1033 mb high centered S of the Azores near 35N33W.
The tail end of a cold front is over the E Atlantic from 31N11W to
the Canary Islands near 28N19W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm
of the front.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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