[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 281109
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
609 AM EST Wed Feb 28 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1130 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 976 mb low pressure center over the Azores Islands near 37N25W.
A cold front is connected with the low center, and it passes
through 32N13W to 20N30W to 18N40W. Please refer to the METEO-
FRANCE High Seas Forecast at WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-
METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. Gale-force winds are
forecast MADEIRA, IRVING, AGADIR and CANARIAS.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Liberia
near 07N11W to 02N16W. The ITCZ continues from 02N16W, crossing
the Equator near 20W, and continuing along the Equator along 47W
near the coast of Brazil. Scattered showers south of 05N between
23W and 32W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A recent scatterometer pass indicated fresh to strong winds off
the north coast of Yucatan. The winds are related to weak a weak
trough forming most evenings off the west coast of Yucatan and
are fairly localized and will be short lived. Elsewhere, weak
ridging extends across the basin. This is supporting gentle to
moderate east to southeast breezes over most of the Gulf with 1
to 3 ft seas, except for fresh southeast breezes over the
northwest Gulf with 3 to 5 ft seas. No widespread areas of fog
are noted over open waters.

The fresh southerly flow over the northwest Gulf will diminish tonight
ahead of a cold front moving into the northern Gulf early Thu.
Strong northerly winds will follow the front over mainly the
western Gulf into Fri. The front will stall from the Straits of
Florida to near Veracruz Mexico by late Fri before dissipating
Sat. A ridge will build across the Gulf through Sun.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Weakening high pressure north of the area is supporting generally
moderate to fresh trade winds across the basin this morning. The
exception was noted in scatterometer data from 02 UTC which showed
fresh to strong NE winds through the Windward Passage. Seas are
3 to 5 ft. Upper diffluence on the southeast side of a broad
upper trough reaching from Hispaniola to Costa Rica is supporting
a few showers embedded in the trade wind flow over the southeast
Caribbean. Elsewhere across the central and western Caribbean,
fairly dry conditions are in place under the upper trough axis.

Reinforcing high pressure north of the area will continue to support
moderate to fresh trade winds across the basin, with strong
winds pulsing at night off Colombia through late week. These
winds will diminish by Sat as the high pressure weakens and
shifts east ahead of a deep low pressure moving into the western
Atlantic. Large swell will impact the tropical Atlantic waters
through Sat, with a more significant swell event penetrating the
NE Caribbean Sun.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

West of 50W, strong northeast winds follow a cold front reaching
from 31N60W to the Straits of Florida. A few showers are noted
east of 65W in phase with a supporting upper short wave trough and
in an area of higher deep layer moisture. Drier conditions
persist elsewhere, but low level clouds persist within 120 nm of
the front. Recent buoy and altimeter data showed 6 to 9 ft seas
north of 27N. Farther south, gentle to moderate winds prevail. Looking
ahead, the cold front will stall east of the Bahamas and
dissipate through late Thu. Fresh southerly flow will increase
late Thu off NE Florida ahead of another cold front moving off the
coast Thu night. The front will reach from Bermuda to the Straits
of Florida by late Fri, just ahead of a reinforcing front with
strong to possibly gale force winds north of 24N related to deep
low pressure moving off the Virginia coast. The fronts will merge
Sat and reach from 22N65W to the Windward Passage by Sun. A
significant swell event will accompany this system, affecting all
waters east of north Florida and the Bahamas by the end of the
week.

East of 50W, strong to near gale force winds persist north of 20N
into the area of gales described in the special features. recent
altimeter satellite data show seas are reaching as high as 30 ft
north of 20N and east of 40W, with 10 to 15 ft in most areas
elsewhere east of 50W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Christensen
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