[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 270005
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
705 PM EST Mon Feb 26 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A strong 966 mb low pressure system with hurricane force winds
centered over the north-central Atlantic near 40N33W supports a
cold front from 40N24W to 28N30W to 31N57W. A strong pressure
gradient associated with the deep low pressure and cold air
advection associated with cold front are supporting gale force
winds north of the front and east to 35W. Gale conditions are
forecast to prevail through tonight then will gradually diminish
as the low pressure moves farther away from the area. For more
details, refer to the NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO
Headers Misfit/FZNT02 KNHC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the eastern Atlantic through the coast
of Liberia near 06N10W to 02N16W, where it transitions to the
intertropical convergence zone and continues to the coast of
Brazil near 03N44W. Scattered moderate convection is from 02N to
04N between 20W and 25W, and from 02S to 00N between 25W and 28W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front reaches from near Panama City Florida to
Brownsville Texas. Radar from the across the northern Gulf shows a
few showers along and north of the frontal boundary, mainly over
the northeast Gulf, and what may be light rain or drizzle in
patches over the north central and northwest Gulf. Dewpoints are
in the upper 60s to lower 70s over the northwest Gulf, where
platforms are showing areas of fog. Light southeast winds are
noted south of the front with 2 to 4 ft seas.

For the forecast, the front will weaken through tonight. High
pressure will build across the region Tue. Another, stronger cold
front will move into the NW Gulf Wed night. Gale conditions are
possible over the SW Gulf Thu night behind this front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

High pressure north of the area centered between Bermuda and the
northern Bahamas is supporting fresh to strong trade winds across
the south central Caribbean and in the lee of Cuba. Moderate to
fresh trade winds persist elsewhere. An upper low is centered
north of the Mona Passage near 21.5N 68.5W with a sharp upper
trough reaching to Nicaragua. This is supporting a few showers
over Hispaniola and over portions of the northeast Caribbean. land
based observations near Santa Marta Colombia show strong trade
winds currently, and this is indicative of the strong flow off
Colombia expected to reach near gale force overnight due to added
drainage effects.

Little change is expected over the next several days with strong
winds pulsing off Colombia, and possibly the Windward Passage
through mid week. Large long period swells will reach the Atlantic
passages in the Leeward and Windward Islands late in the week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Gale-force winds continue over northeast Atlantic waters
associated with a strong low pressure system N of the area and
associated cold front. See the Special Features section above for
further details. A broad surface ridge prevails across the west
and central Atlantic anchored by a 1024 mb high near 28N68W,
which is forecast to move southwest by Tue morning before
dissipating Thu. A cold front will move over the waters west of
55W by Tue morning and will continue to move over central Atlc
waters Wed and Thu.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Christensen
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