[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 261205
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
705 AM EST Mon Feb 26 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A strong low pressure system with hurricane force winds centered
over the north-central Atlantic supports a cold front that
extends from 30N33W to 28N41W to 30N53W. A strong pressure
gradient between this low and surface ridging to the west of it is
supporting gale-force winds north of 29N between 35W and 44W. Gale
conditions are forecast to prevail through late Tuesday. For more
details, refer to the NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO
Headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the eastern Atlantic near 05N09W and
continues to 03N15W. The ITCZ extends from that point to 0N29W to
the coast of Brazil near 0N49W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is N of 03S between 0W-11W...numerous strong
convection is E of the prime meridian. Otherwise, scattered
moderate convection is within 120 nm either side of the ITCZ
between 19W and 31W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Return flow is across the Gulf of Mexico ahead of a weak cold
front that extends from Louisiana SW to inland NE Mexico near
23N98W. Radar imagery report only isolated showers in the vicinity
of this boundary while surface platforms in the NW Gulf continue
to report dense fog. A surface trough is ahead of the front
extending from the Florida Panhandle to the eastern coast of
Louisiana. Scattered showers are over the western half of the
Florida Panhandle and over Mississippi and Alabama adjacent waters
N of 29N. Looking ahead, the front will stall early this afternoon and
then lift northward along the Gulf coast through Tuesday morning.
Scattered showers will accompany this boundary.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Stable and fair weather conditions dominate the Caribbean at this
time as a broad area of high pressure extends across the area
from the north. An upper-level low is centered near Hispaniola
extending a trough across the central Caribbean. Scattered showers
are noted over Hispaniola while isolated showers are over portions
of Puerto Rico. Scatterometer data depicts moderate trades across
most of the the basin except within 90 nm of the Colombia coast,
where fresh to strong winds prevail. No major changes are expected
through Tuesday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Gale-force winds are already occurring over northeast Atlantic
waters. See the Special Features section above for further
details. A broad surface ridge prevails across the west and
central Atlantic anchored by a 1026 mb high near 30N67W. Moderate
to fresh winds are noted in the approaches of the Windward
Passage forecast to increase to fresh to strong at night during the
next two days. To the far east, a low pressure system over the
northeast Atlantic continues to support a cold front that enters
the area of discussion near 30N13W to 16N25W then becomes weak and
stationary through 16N36W. Expect for a similar scenario to
prevail through the next 24 hours.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Ramos
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