[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 260504
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1204 AM EST Mon Feb 26 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A rapidly intensifying low pressure system centered over the
north-central Atlantic supports a cold front currently extending
along 31N. This front will enter the forecast waters along by
today. A strong pressure gradient between this low and surface
ridging to the west of it is supporting the development of gale-
force winds north of 29N east of 41W. Gale conditions are
forecast to prevail through late Tuesday. For more details, refer
to the NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO Headers
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the eastern Atlantic near 04N08W and
continues to 01N17W. The ITCZ extends from that point to the
coast of Brazil near 04S38W. Scattered moderate convection is
from 01S-05N between 20W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging prevails across most of the basin, anchored by a
1026 mb high centered over the west Atlantic. With this, fair
weather dominates the area. Over the far northwest portion of the
basin, a low pressure system is developing along the coast of
Texas. A pair of 1011 mb lows are located near 29N96W and 27N98W. A
stationary front extends through the lows and connects to another
low currently centered over western North Carolina. A pre-frontal
trough extends over the northeast Gulf waters from 30N85W to
29N90W. At this time, no significant convection is observed with
any of these features. Ahead of the front, patchy fog has been
reported mainly north of 27N and west of 90W. Scatterometer data
depicts gentle to moderate southerly winds across the basin. Expect
for the front to transition into a cold front overnight, moving
across the northern Gulf waters today. The front will stall again
through the day and then lift northward along the Gulf coast by
Tuesday morning. Scattered showers will accompany this boundary.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Stable and fair weather conditions dominate the Caribbean at this
time as a broad area of high pressure extends across the area
from the north. An upper-level low is centered north of Hispaniola
extending a trough across the central Caribbean. Scattered showers
are noted over the Mona Passage and Puerto Rico coastal waters
supported by a diffluent flow aloft. Scatterometer data depicts
moderate trades across most of the the basin except within 90 nm
of the Colombia coast, where fresh to strong winds prevail. No
major changes are expected through Tuesday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Gale-force winds are already occurring over northeast Atlantic
waters. See the Special Features section above for further
details. A broad surface ridge prevails across the west and
central Atlantic anchored by a 1026 mb high near 30N67W. Moderate
to fresh winds are noted in the approaches of the Windward
Passage forecast to increase to fresh to strong at night during the
next two days. To the far east, a low pressure system over the
northeast Atlantic continues to support a cold front that enters
the area of discussion near 30N13W to 16N25W then becomes weak and
stationary through 16N36W. Expect for a similar scenario to
prevail through the next 24 hours.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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