[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 230005
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
705 PM EST Thu Feb 22 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A tight surface pressure gradient
continues to exist, between comparatively higher surface pressures
in the western Atlantic Ocean, and lower surface pressures in
northern sections of South America. This pattern is supporting
winds reaching gale-force strength from 11N to 13N between 74W
and 76.5W. Wave heights within the area of gale-force winds will
range from 10 feet to 15 feet. Please read the latest NHC High
Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for
more details.

Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is
listed on the website: WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-
MARINE/BULLETIN/ GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. Gale-force winds are
forecast for the areas: IRVING and METEOR. The OUTLOOK, for the
24 hours that follow the forecast that is valid until 24/0000
UTC, consists of: the threat of NW near gale or gale in the
western sections of IRVING and in the western sections of METEOR.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea
and Sierra Leone near 09N13W, to 03N19W. The ITCZ continues from
03N19W, crossing the Equator along 23W, to 05S37W. Precipitation:
isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from 07N
southward from 53W eastward. rainshowers are possible elsewhere
from 10N southward from 60W eastward.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front is along the Texas Gulf coast, from the upper
Texas coast, into the coastal waters of the Deep South of Texas,
to the coast of NE Mexico near 24N98W. The stationary front
continues to the Big Bend of Texas, and the Far West of Texas.
Rainshowers are possible, in areas of scattered-to-broken low
level clouds, that are from 28N southward from 90W eastward,
and from 93W westward.

The current stationary front that is along the coasts of NE
Mexico and Texas will move N tonight. Strong winds will affect
the Straits of Florida and the waters adjacent to the Yucatan
Peninsula tonight. Otherwise, strong high pressure in the W
Atlantic Ocean will generate moderate to fresh SE return flow
across the basin through Sunday. A weak cold front will drift
into the Texas coastal waters late on Sunday, then head SE and
extend from the FL Panhandle to Veracruz Mexico on Monday
afternoon.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about the
Gale Warning for the waters that are near the coast of Colombia.

Rainshowers are possible, in areas of broken-to-overcast low
level clouds, across the entire area. 24-hour rainfall totals that
are listed for the period that ended at 22/1200 UTC...according
to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...
MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are: 0.41 in Guadeloupe, 0.27 in St.
Thomas in the U.S. Virgin Islands, and 0.26 in San Juan in Puerto
Rico.

Strong high pres near Bermuda will dominate the
region through the end of the week. Fresh to strong trade winds
will prevail across the Caribbean and Tropical N Atlc waters
through Fri night, with nocturnal winds pulsing to gale force
along the Colombia coast. The strong high will weaken this weekend
into early next week, leading to diminishing winds and seas.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A dissipating cold front is along 32N22W 20N26W 17N30W. A shear
line continues from 17N30W to 15N48W and 15N60W.
Broken low level clouds and possible rainshowers are to the NW
and N of the boundaries.

W Atlc ridge will persist near 31N through the weekend. Gentle to
moderate winds will prevail N of 25N with fresh to strong winds
continuing S of 25N through Fri evening. Large NNE swell will move
through waters E of 65W through Fri night. A weak cold front may
move off the NE Florida coast Mon night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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