[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 201717
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1217 PM EST Tue Feb 20 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A tight surface pressure gradient
continues between high pressure in the western Atlantic and
lower pressure in northern sections of South America. This
pattern is supporting winds reaching gale-force strength within 90
nm of the coast of Colombia this week. Wave heights within the
area of gale force winds will range between 12-16 ft. Please read
the latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Africa near
07N11W southwestward to 00N24W. The ITCZ crosses the equator near
24W and remains south of the discussion area to the coast of
Brazil. Scattered moderate convection is south of 02N between
15W-20W and west of 30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends westward across the entire basin from
the Atlantic. Scatterometer data depicts moderate southeasterly
winds across most of the area. Satellite imagery shows scattered
shallow convection over the east Gulf mainly east of 87W while
fair weather prevails elsewhere. Expect increasing winds and
building seas through mid-week as high pressure strengthens in
the western Atlantic. A thermal trough will develop over the
western Yucatan Peninsula each evening, drifting westward across
the Bay of Campeche during overnight hours, then dissipate in the
SW Gulf by late morning.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about
the Gale Warning currently in effect near the coast of Colombia.

A tight pressure gradient across the basin created by the
combination of strong high pressure over the Atlantic and lower
pressure over northwest Colombia is producing strong east winds
between 70W-80W, while moderate to fresh winds prevail elsewhere.
Trade wind showers are evident from satellite imagery across the
basin. The high pressure will strengthen through Wednesday,
increasing the winds and building seas east of 80W in the
Caribbean and the Tropical Atlantic waters.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends over the central Atlantic from 31N35W to
23N52W then becomes diffuse west of 53W. Scattered moderate
showers are observed along northern portion of the front mainly
north of 28N, and low clouds with scattered rain prevails along
the remainder of the frontal boundary. Broad high pressure
centered north of 30N prevails across the rest of the basin. The
front will become stationary during the next 06-12 hours and
should dissipate later today. The existing area of high pressure
will be fortified by a stronger subtropical high through mid-week.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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