[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 191728
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1228 PM EST Mon Feb 19 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A tight surface pressure gradient
continues between a high pressure in the western Atlantic and
lower pressures in northern sections of South America. This
pattern supports winds pulsing to minimal gale-force near the
coast of Colombia every night/early morning hours through the
week. Wave heights within the area of gale force winds will range
between 12-16 ft. Please read the latest NHC High Seas Forecast
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Africa near
07N12W southwestward to 02N18W. The ITCZ continues from that
point to 03N40W. Scattered moderate convection is within 90 nm on
either side of the boundaries between 10W-39W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends westward from a 1037 mb high centered
over the west Atlantic and covers the whole basin. A thermal
trough is extending across the Bay of Campeche with little to no
convection. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate
southeasterly winds across the whole area. These winds are
transporting enough low-level moisture to generate scattered
showers currently moving across the Straits of Florida while
isolated showers are noted east of 90W. Expect increasing winds
and building seas beginning today as high pressure strengthens in
the western Atlantic. The thermal trough will develop over the
western Yucatan Peninsula through mid week, drifting westward
across the eastern Bay of Campeche during the overnight hours, and
then dissipate in the SW Gulf waters by the late morning hours.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details
regarding the Gale Warning in effect for the area near the coast
of Colombia.

A tight pressure gradient across the basin created by the
combination of a high pressure over the Atlantic and lower
pressure over NW Colombia is producing strong east winds between
70W-80W, while moderate to fresh winds prevail elsewhere.
The high pressure will be reinforced by a stronger one later today.
The pressure gradient associated with this stronger high system
will bring increasing winds and building seas across the eastern
and central Caribbean, and the Tropical N Atlantic waters through
mid-week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Broad area of high pressure prevails across the basin, centered by
a 1024 mb high near 29N37W. A weakness in the ridge is noted as a
surface trough that extends from 30N44W to 27N51W. A cold front
has nudged southward to roughly along 30N between 50W-70W,
then it becomes stationary as it extends northwestward to coastal
Georgia at 31N79W. Minimal cloudiness is observed near the front.
The front will become stationary today and dissipate by early
Tuesday. The existing area of high pressure is forecast to be
fortified by stronger system through mid-week.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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